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Asymmetric volatility transmission between the real exchange rate and stock returns in South Africa

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  • Sikhosana, Ayanda
  • Aye, Goodness C.

Abstract

This paper analyses the asymmetric volatility spillovers between the real exchange rate and stock returns in South Africa. A Multivariate Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model alongside other asymmetric GARCH models (GJR GARCH and APARCH) were estimated using monthly data from 1996 to 2016 to examine the relationship. The results show that there is a bi-directional volatility spillover effect between the two markets in the short-run. Also these effects are asymmetric. These findings suggest that while information in one market can be used to forecast changes in the other, these financial assets should not be included in the same portfolio when diversifying risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Sikhosana, Ayanda & Aye, Goodness C., 2018. "Asymmetric volatility transmission between the real exchange rate and stock returns in South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:60:y:2018:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2018.08.002
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    3. Huang, Qian & Wang, Xiangning & Zhang, Shuguang, 2021. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Goodness C. Aye & Laurence Harris, 2019. "The effect of real exchange rate volatility on income distribution in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Saadati, Alireza & Honarmandi, Zahra & Zarei, Samira, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Shocks and Export-Oriented Businesses in Iran: An Empirical Analysis Using NARDL Model," MPRA Paper 101554, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jun 2020.
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Nnenna Ogbonnaya‐Orji, 2022. "A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of U.S. stock returns to exchange rate movements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1220-1239, January.
    7. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Soo-Wah Low & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Lain-Tze Tee & Noor Azlan Ghazali, 2023. "Asymmetric and Lag Effects of Industry Risk Factors on the Malaysian Oil and Gas Stocks," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.
    8. Liu, Xiaoxing & Shehzad, Khurram & Kocak, Emrah & Zaman, Umer, 2022. "Dynamic correlations and portfolio implications across stock and commodity markets before and during the COVID-19 era: A key role of gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Khurram Shehzad & Xiaoxing Liu & Aviral Tiwari & Muhammad Arif & Abdul Rauf, 2021. "Analysing time difference and volatility linkages between China and the United States during financial crises and stable period using VARX‐DCC‐MEGARCH model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 814-833, January.
    10. Wang, Xiangning & Huang, Qian & Zhang, Shuguang, 2023. "Effects of macroeconomic factors on stock prices for BRICS using the variational mode decomposition and quantile method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Stock market; Risk; Exchange rates; Asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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