IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v56y2021ics1062940820302254.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Qian
  • Wang, Xiangning
  • Zhang, Shuguang

Abstract

Using data from BRICS countries, we apply the TVP-VAR model to analyze the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on their stock markets and the mechanisms leading to those effects. We find that for BRICS countries, there are similarities as well as differences in the extent, direction, and duration of the effects of exchange rate changes on the stock market. As for the affecting mechanisms, Brazil is almost entirely driven by the financial account, while the current account is dominant for Russia, whereas India, China, and South Africa depend on both mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Qian & Wang, Xiangning & Zhang, Shuguang, 2021. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s1062940820302254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101340
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940820302254
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101340?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    2. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Foreign exchange rate exposure: Evidence from Canada," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 18-29.
    3. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    4. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    5. Kumar, Satish & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Chauhan, Yogesh & Ji, Qiang, 2019. "Dependence structure between the BRICS foreign exchange and stock markets using the dependence-switching copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-284.
    6. Bashir, Usman & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney F., 2016. "Do foreign exchange and equity markets co-move in Latin American region? Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 889-897.
    7. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    8. Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Minzhi & Deng, Mi & Zhao, Yupei & Ouyang, Jian, 2019. "Exploring the dynamic effects of financial factors on oil prices based on a TVP-VAR model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 532(C).
    9. Smita Mahapatra & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Dynamics of the impact of currency fluctuations on stock markets in India: Assessing the pricing of exchange rate risks," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 19(1), pages 15-23, March.
    10. Aysun, Uluc & Guldi, Melanie, 2011. "Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 321-337.
    11. Lin, Chien-Hsiu, 2012. "The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 161-172.
    12. Yang, Sheng-Ping, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock prices in small open economies: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 337-354.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    14. Jouchi Nakajima & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with the Ordering of Variables for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-196, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Zhong, Meirui & He, Ruifang & Chen, Jinyu & Huang, Jianbai, 2019. "Time-varying effects of international nonferrous metal price shocks on China’s industrial economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 528(C).
    16. Mitra, Rajarshi, 2017. "Stock market and foreign exchange market integration in South Africa," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-34.
    17. Bekiros, Stelios, 2014. "Forecasting with a state space time-varying parameter VAR model: Evidence from the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 619-626.
    18. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
    19. Liang, Chin-Chia & Lin, Jeng-Bau & Hsu, Hao-Cheng, 2013. "Reexamining the relationships between stock prices and exchange rates in ASEAN-5 using panel Granger causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 560-563.
    20. Ryou, Jai Won & Baak, Saang Joon & Kim, Won Joong, 2019. "Effects of Japanese quantitative easing policy on the economies of Japan and Korea," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 241-252.
    21. Toparlı, Elif Akay & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Balcılar, Mehmet, 2019. "The impact of oil prices on the stock returns in Turkey: A TVP-VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    22. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    23. Tule, Moses & Dogo, Mela & Uzonwanne, Godfrey, 2018. "Volatility of stock market returns and the naira exchange rate," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 97-105.
    24. Sikhosana, Ayanda & Aye, Goodness C., 2018. "Asymmetric volatility transmission between the real exchange rate and stock returns in South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-8.
    25. Moore, Tomoe & Wang, Ping, 2014. "Dynamic linkage between real exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from developed and emerging Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-11.
    26. Jovan Njegić & Dejan Živkov & Irena Janković, 2018. "Interrelationship and Spillover Effect between Stock and Exchange Rate Markets in the Major Emerging Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 270-292.
    27. Sui, Lu & Sun, Lijuan, 2016. "Spillover effects between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from BRICS around the recent global financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 459-471.
    28. Priestley, Richard & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2007. "Linear and nonlinear exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1016-1037, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tshikalange, Mulanga & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2023. "The determinants of the dynamic correlation between foreign exchange and equity markets: Cross-Country comparisons," MPRA Paper 118401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yang, Lu & Cui, Xue & Yang, Lei & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "Risk spillover from international financial markets and China's macro-economy: A MIDAS-CoVaR-QR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 55-69.
    3. Dong, Xiyong & Li, Changhong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "How can investors build a better portfolio in small open economies? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Wang, Xiangning & Huang, Qian & Zhang, Shuguang, 2023. "Effects of macroeconomic factors on stock prices for BRICS using the variational mode decomposition and quantile method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    5. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    6. Tian, Meiyu & Li, Wanyang & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The dynamic impact of oil price shocks on the stock market and the USD/RMB exchange rate: Evidence from implied volatility indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Ngo Thai Hung, 2022. "Spillover Effects Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 259-286, April.
    8. Dong, Xiyong & Li, Changhong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "How can investors build a better portfolio in small open economies? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Hock Tsen Wong, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Returns And Real Stock Price Returns In The Stock Market Of Malaysia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1319-1349, December.
    10. Xiyong Dong & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2018. "Structural breaks, dynamic correlations, and hedge and safe havens for stock and foreign exchange markets in Greater China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2783-2803, October.
    11. Zhu, Xuehong & Liao, Jianhui & Chen, Ying, 2021. "Time-varying effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty on the nonferrous metals industry: From the perspective of industrial security," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
    14. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Nnenna Ogbonnaya‐Orji, 2022. "A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of U.S. stock returns to exchange rate movements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1220-1239, January.
    15. Jin‐Yu Chen & Xue‐Hong Zhu & Mei‐Rui Zhong, 2021. "Time‐varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3460-3472, July.
    16. Coşkun Akdeniz, 2021. "Construction of the Monetary Conditions Index with TVP-VAR Model: Empirical Evidence for Turkish Economy," Springer Books, in: Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz (ed.), Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics, edition 1, pages 215-228, Springer.
    17. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    18. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    19. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    20. Gong, Xu & Chen, Liqiang & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate fluctuations; Stock market; Mechanisms; The current account; The financial account; TVP-VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s1062940820302254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.