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Dynamics of the impact of currency fluctuations on stock markets in India: Assessing the pricing of exchange rate risks

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  • Smita Mahapatra
  • Saumitra N. Bhaduri

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of the impact of currency fluctuation on Indian stock market by assessing the pricing of exchange rate risk during the period 2005–2016, specifically before and after financial crises. Estimating a two-factor arbitrage pricing model, using a random coefficient model, the paper presents evidence that stock returns react significantly to foreign exchange rate fluctuations in the post-crisis period. Particularly, during the last four years of our sample, 2012–2016, the exchange rate risk factor is becoming a prominent determinant of stock returns, indicating that Indian investors are increasingly expecting a risk premium on their investment for their added exposure to exchange rate risk. This is also further corroborated by the study by highlighting the fact that higher the foreign exchange exposure of industry, measured by trade balance (net inflows), higher is their sensitivity to exchange rate risk (ßS). A plausible reason for such premium could be the inadequate hedging by Indian firms to mitigate the exchange rate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Smita Mahapatra & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Dynamics of the impact of currency fluctuations on stock markets in India: Assessing the pricing of exchange rate risks," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 19(1), pages 15-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bor:bistre:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:15-23
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Qi-an & Li, Huashi, 2023. "How does exchange rate elasticity of aggregate consumption adjust currency risk price in the stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 590-610.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Olaniran, Abeeb & Tchankam, Jean Paul, 2022. "Oil tail risk and the tail risk of the US Dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Mpoha, Salifya & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Assessing the extent of exchange rate risk pricing in equity markets: emerging versus developed economies," MPRA Paper 99597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Abbass, Kashif & Sharif, Arshian & Song, Huaming & Ali, Malik Tayyab & Khan, Farina & Amin, Nabila, 2022. "Do geopolitical oil price risk, global macroeconomic fundamentals relate Islamic and conventional stock market? Empirical evidence from QARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Nnenna Ogbonnaya‐Orji, 2022. "A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of U.S. stock returns to exchange rate movements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1220-1239, January.
    6. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong, 2022. "The dynamic moderating function of the exchange rate market on the oil-stock nexus," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Benjamin Mudiangombe Mudiangombe & John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "Dynamic Asymmetric Effect of Currency Risk Pricing of Exchange Rate on Equity Markets: A Regime-Switching Based C-Vine Copulas Method," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-30, August.
    8. Wang, Xiangning & Huang, Qian & Zhang, Shuguang, 2023. "Effects of macroeconomic factors on stock prices for BRICS using the variational mode decomposition and quantile method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Huang, Qian & Wang, Xiangning & Zhang, Shuguang, 2021. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate risk; Arbitrage pricing theory; Stock returns; Risk premium; Hedging; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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