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Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China

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Author Info
Gong, Gang
Lin, Justin Yifu

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Abstract

Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China. We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics. We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investment and if the state of the economy maintains high rate of growth. This expression is consistent with the recent time series variation of some key macroeconomic variables. The high steady state of growth could be explained by the current institutional environment of China.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 1-17
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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:1-17

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  2. Peter Flaschel & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler, 1998. "A Keynesian Based Econometric Framework for Studying Monetary Policy Rules," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School. [Downloadable!]
  3. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Justin Lifu Lin, 2004. "Is China's Growth Real and Sustainable," Development Economics Working Papers 445, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, . "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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