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Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China

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  • Gong, Gang
  • Lin, Justin Yifu

Abstract

Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China. We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics. We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investment and if the state of the economy maintains high rate of growth. This expression is consistent with the recent time series variation of some key macroeconomic variables. The high steady state of growth could be explained by the current institutional environment of China.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 1-17

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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:1-17

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  1. Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  2. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April.
  3. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  4. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
  6. Peter Flaschel & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler, 1998. "A Keynesian Based Econometric Framework for Studying Monetary Policy Rules," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1998-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  7. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
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Cited by:
  1. He, Qing & Tai-Leung Chong, Terence & Shi, Kang, 2009. "What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 650-661, December.
  2. Chen, Shiyi & Jefferson, Gary H. & Zhang, Jun, 2011. "Structural change, productivity growth and industrial transformation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-150, March.
  3. Ding, Sai & Guariglia, Alessandra & Knight, John, 2010. "Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-110, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  4. Wei Chi & Richard B. Freeman & Hongbin Li, 2012. "Adjusting to Really Big Changes: The Labor Market in China, 1989-2009," NBER Working Papers 17721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, . "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  6. Li, Cheng, 2010. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 28226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Chen, Yen-Hsiao & Quan, Lianfeng & Liu, Yang, 2013. "An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 69-81.
  8. Yuanyan Sophia Zhang, 2011. "Credit Market Imperfection and Sectoral Asymmetry of Chinese Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 11/118, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.

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