An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP
AbstractThis paper employs a structural time series model designed with three components of stochastic seasonality, trigonometric expression of cyclicality and local linear trend to investigate the evolutionary process of China's GDP. In particular, the model is able to detect the stop–go feature of China's economic growth, i.e., growth cycle, as well as business cycle. The empirical result suggests that most variation in China's macroeconomic performance came from business cycle. The investigation of the three components along with historical events suggests that the Chinese economy had been largely influenced by political activities up to the early 1990s. In the mid-1990s China entered a period of stable and highly growing economy, thanks to the economic reform and the successful implementation of macroeconomic policies. However, since the mid-2000s China has become more sensitive to the turbulences in international markets. In the foreseeable future, the challenge facing China is a more volatile economy with possible slowdown in the economic growth, although the growth rate would still be high compared to developed economies.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco
Unobserved components; State space model; Output gap; Structural break; Five-Year Plan;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
- N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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