An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP
AbstractThis paper employs a structural time series model designed with three components of stochastic seasonality, trigonometric expression of cyclicality and local linear trend to investigate the evolutionary process of China's GDP. In particular, the model is able to detect the stop–go feature of China's economic growth, i.e., growth cycle, as well as business cycle. The empirical result suggests that most variation in China's macroeconomic performance came from business cycle. The investigation of the three components along with historical events suggests that the Chinese economy had been largely influenced by political activities up to the early 1990s. In the mid-1990s China entered a period of stable and highly growing economy, thanks to the economic reform and the successful implementation of macroeconomic policies. However, since the mid-2000s China has become more sensitive to the turbulences in international markets. In the foreseeable future, the challenge facing China is a more volatile economy with possible slowdown in the economic growth, although the growth rate would still be high compared to developed economies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco
Unobserved components; State space model; Output gap; Structural break; Five-Year Plan;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
- N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Economic Fluctuation, Macro Control, and Monetary Policy in the Transitional Chinese Economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 180-195, October.
- Andrew Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000.
"Signal extraction and the formulation of unobserved components models,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 84-107.
- Harvey, A.C. & Koopman, S.J.M., 1999. "Signal Extraction and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Paper 1999-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Shahid Yusuf, 1994. "China's Macroeconomic Performance and Management during Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 71-92, Spring.
- Maddison, Angus, 2007. "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199227204, October.
- He, Qing & Tai-Leung Chong, Terence & Shi, Kang, 2009. "What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 650-661, December.
- Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2007.
"Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India,"
NBER Working Papers
12943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Durbin & S. J. Koopman, 2000.
"Time series analysis of non-Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 3-56.
- Durbin, J. & Koopman, S.J.M., 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Non-Gaussian Observations Based on State Space Models from Both Classical and Bayesian Perspectives," Discussion Paper 1998-142, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
- Xu, Xinpeng & Voon, J. P., 2003. "Regional integration in China: a statistical model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 35-42, April.
- Xu, Xinpeng, 2002. "Have the Chinese provinces become integrated under reform?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 116-133.
- Harvey, Andrew, 2006. "Forecasting with Unobserved Components Time Series Models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- repec:wbk:wbpubs:12426 is not listed on IDEAS
- Xinhua He, 2010. "Noteworthy Discrepancies in China's GDP Accounting," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 88-102.
- Tingguo Zheng & Yujuan Teng & Tao Song, 2010. "Business Cycle Asymmetry in China: Evidence from Friedman's Plucking Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 103-120.
- Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
- Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
- Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008.
"Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
- Gang Gong & Justin Yifu Lin, 2005. "Deflationary Expansion : an Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China," Macroeconomics Working Papers 21959, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April.
- James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
- Keidel, Albert, 2001. "China's GDP expenditure accounts," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 355-367.
- Andrews, Rick L, 1994. "Forecasting Performance of Structural Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 129-33, January.
- Harry X. Wu, 2007. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.