Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China
AbstractBoth theoretical predictions of Keynesian view and a large body of empirical studies on developed countries suggest that business cycle fluctuations can be partially smoothed by counter-cyclical fiscal policies. Our paper extends this strand of literature by considering the nexus between output fluctuations and government size in the context of Chinese fiscal federalism. Using a sample of 29 Chinese provinces for the period of 1994-2007, we fail to provide consistent evidence for the stabilizing effect of fiscal policies. In particular, we find that under the tax assignment system (fen shui zhi), neither the central government’s fiscal transfers nor the provincial budgetary and extra-budgetary revenues help reduce economic volatility. Such results are shown to be robust across different model specifications, volatility measures and estimation techniques.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28226.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
business cycles; government size; fiscal federalism; China;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2011-01-30 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2011-01-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2011-01-30 (Public Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-01-30 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tao Zhang & Heng-fu Zou, 1996.
"Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1608, The World Bank.
- Zhang, Tao & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 221-240, February.
- Tao Zhang & Heng-fu Zou, 2001. "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China," CEMA Working Papers 58, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1996.
"Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
- Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," NBER Working Papers 5537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrés, Javier & Doménech, Rafael & Fatás, Antonio, 2004.
"The Stabilizing Role of Government Size,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rafael Domenech & Javier Andres & Antonio Fatas, 2006. "The Stabilizing Role of Government Size," Working Papers 0603, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia, revised Jan 2007.
- Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech & Antonio Fatás, 2007. "The stabilizing role of government size," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0710, Banco de Espa�a.
- Stefan E. Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 97/135, International Monetary Fund.
- Adeel Malik & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2005.
"The Geography of Output Volatility,"
Economics Series Working Papers
WPS/2005-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Adeel Malik & Jonathan R W Temple, 2005. "The Geography of Output Volatility," CSAE Working Paper Series 2005-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan, 2006. "The Geography of Output Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 5516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999.
"Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
- Gang Gong & Justin Yifu Lin, 2005.
"Deflationary Expansion : an Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China,"
Macroeconomics Working Papers
21959, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
- Jean Pisani-Ferry & Xavier Debrun & AndrÃ© Sapir, 2008.
"Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization?,"
IMF Working Papers
08/122, International Monetary Fund.
- Xavier Debrun & Jean Pisani-Ferry & AndrÃ© Sapir, 2008. "Government size and output volatility: should we forsake automatic stabilisation?," Working Papers 47, Bruegel.
- Xavier Debrun & Jean Pisani-Ferry & Andr� Sapir, 2008. "Government size and output volatility: should we forsake automatic stabilization?," European Economy - Economic Papers 316, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
- Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005.
"China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model ,"
Asian Economic Journal,
East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
- Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2004. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.