IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v54y2018icp39-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s rapid growth and real exchange rate appreciation: Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect

Author

Listed:
  • Imai, Hiroyuki

Abstract

The real exchange rate of the Chinese yuan vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar appreciated by 4.6% per year from 2005 to 2015 after a period of stability (1996–2004). The fast appreciation may appear to be a classic case of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. China during this period was on a path of manufacturing-led rapid growth and technological catch-up. As expected, there was a large difference in total factor productivity growth between the tradable and nontradable sectors, which contributed to real exchange rate appreciation. However, a decomposition of the annual 4.6% real exchange rate appreciation reveals that the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect was relatively small at 1.2 percentage points. The more important factor was real appreciation in the price of tradables (a rise in the price of China’s tradables relative to U.S. tradables) at 4.4 percentage points. This pattern—a modest Balassa-Samuelson effect and a large real appreciation in the price of tradables—was also present in Japan and Central and Eastern European transition economies, all of which experienced long-term real exchange rate appreciation during their high growth periods. China’s recent case adds to evidence that the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect is usually modest and does not account for the bulk of observed rapid real exchange rate appreciation in high growth economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Imai, Hiroyuki, 2018. "China’s rapid growth and real exchange rate appreciation: Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 39-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:39-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007817300271
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Égert, Balázs, 2011. "Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa-Samuelson, Engel's Law and other culprits," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 208-229, June.
    4. Asea, Patrick K & Corden, W Max, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: An Overview," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, October.
    5. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Appreciating the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 265-297, February.
    6. Nelson, Richard R & Pack, Howard, 1999. "The Asian Miracle and Modern Growth Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 416-436, July.
    7. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
    8. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    9. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008. "China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, February.
    10. Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February.
    11. Patrick K. Asea, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: An Overview," UCLA Economics Working Papers 710, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
    13. Tyers, Rod & Golley, Jane, 2008. "China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 547-574.
    14. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2004. "The Balassa–Samuelson Effect in Central Europe: A Disaggregated Analysis1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 63-94, March.
    15. Felipe, Jesus & McCombie, John, 2017. "The Debate about the Sources of Growth in East Asia after a Quarter of a Century: much ado about nothing," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 512, Asian Development Bank.
    16. Egert, Balazs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Lahreche-Revil, Amina, 2006. "Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3393-3406, December.
    17. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    18. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    19. CAI, Fang & DU, Yang, 2011. "Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 601-610.
    20. Imai, Hiroyuki, 2010. "Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa-Samuelson effect?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 174-185, April.
    21. GUO, Qian, 2010. "The Balassa-Samuelson model of purchasing power parity and Chinese exchange rates," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 334-345, June.
    22. Almås, Ingvild & Grewal, Mandeep & Hvide, Marielle & Ugurlu, Serhat, 2017. "The PPP approach revisited: A study of RMB valuation against the USD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 18-38.
    23. Gordon H. Hanson, 2012. "The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 41-64, Spring.
    24. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    25. Dani Rodrik & Tain-Jy Chen, 1998. "TFPG Controversies, Institutions and Economic Performance in East Asia," International Economic Association Series, in: Yujiro Hayami & Masahiko Aoki (ed.), The Institutional Foundations of East Asian Economic Development, chapter 4, pages 79-105, Palgrave Macmillan.
    26. Alastair Thomas & Alan King, 2008. "The Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis in the Asia‐Pacific Region Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 127-141, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    2. Wang, Xiaomin & Xuan, Ziming & Storella, Théo H. & Zhou, Xudong, 2020. "Determinants of non-prescription antibiotic dispensing in Chinese community pharmacies from socio-ecological and health system perspectives," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    3. Carl Grekou, 2019. "EQCHANGE Annual Assessment 2019," Working Papers 2019-19, CEPII research center.
    4. Fatbardha Morina & Eglantina Hysa & Uğur Ergün & Mirela Panait & Marian Catalin Voica, 2020. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, August.
    5. Chin‐Yoong Wong & Yoke‐Kee Eng, 2022. "Renminbi Appreciation and China's Industrial Upgrading," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(3), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Nouira, Ridha, 2021. "The nonlinear ARDL approach and productivity bias hypothesis: Evidence from 68 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 80-89.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroyuki Imai, 2020. "Was the Balassa–Samuelson Effect Small? Uncaptured Quality Improvements and Japan’s Real Exchange Rate Appreciation, 1956–1970," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 632-660, December.
    2. Imai, Hiroyuki, 2010. "Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa-Samuelson effect?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 174-185, April.
    3. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    5. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    6. Stacie Beck & Cagay Coskuner, 2007. "Tax Effects on the Real Exchange Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 854-868, November.
    7. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Productivity Growth of the Nontradable Sectors in China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 655-666, November.
    8. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2018. "Revisiting the Balassa–Samuelson effect: International tourism and cultural proximity," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 915-944, December.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: : An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Martin Berka & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants," Working Papers 4, New Zealand Centre of Macroeconomics.
    12. Gabor Oblath & Eva Palocz & David Popper & Akos Valentinyi, 2015. "Economic convergence and structural change in the new member states of the European Union Convergence in volumes, prices and the share of services, with implications for wage convergence: an expenditu," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1544, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    13. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 8, pages 211-248, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    15. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 297-304.
    16. Tsen, Wong Hock, 2011. "The real exchange rate determination: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 800-811, October.
    17. O’Brien, Thomas J. & Ruiz de Vargas, Santiago, 2019. "Currency indexes and consistent currency misvaluation: Illustrations using Big Mac data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 464-474.
    18. Martin Gorčák & Stanislav Šaroch & Josef Bič, 2021. "Cenová konvergence zemí Evropské unie od východního rozšíření a její dopady na Českou republiku [Price Convergence of the EU Countries since the Eastern Enlargement and its Impacts on the Czech Rep," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(4), pages 393-412.
    19. Chen, Lein-Lein & Choi, Seungmook & Devereux, John, 2015. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes at long time horizons," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 264-277.
    20. Gómez Aguirre Mario & Rodríguez Chávez José Carlos, 2013. "El efecto Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson. El caso de México," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 58(3), pages 121-147, julio-sep.
    21. Ferda Halicioglu & Natalya Ketenci, 2018. "Testing the productivity bias hypothesis in Middle East countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(5), pages 922-931, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Purchasing power parity; The Balassa-Samuelson effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:39-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.