Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The trend of the total stock of the private car-petrol in Spain: Stochastic modelling using a new gamma diffusion process

Contents:

Author Info

  • Gutiérrez, R.
  • Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R.
  • Nafidi, A.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The main aim of this study is to model the trend of the evolution of the total stock of private petrol-driven cars. In Spain, as in other EU countries, this trend between 2000 and 2005 differed significantly from that observed from 1986 to 1999. Moreover, it varies greatly from that corresponding to the stock of diesel-driven cars, which consistently presents an exponential Gompertz-type increase. Spain constitutes a typical example of a failure to observe the maximum CO2 emission levels assigned to it by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol (1992); a significant percentage of these excess emissions is accounted for by the land transport sector, in general, and by the private cars subsector, in particular. This paper proposes a stochastic model based on a new non homogeneous stochastic gamma-type diffusion process which it is a stochastic version of a Gamma function type deterministic growth model considered in Skiadas [1]. We describe its main probabilistic characteristics and establish a statistical methodology by which it can be fitted to real data and obtain medium-term forecasts that, in statistical terms, are quite accurate.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V1T-4SGTM7R-1/2/ac41321ab00bd77d7d4606b88ba00208
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 86 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 18-24

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:86:y:2009:i:1:p:18-24

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description

    Order Information:
    Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
    Web: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic

    Related research

    Keywords: Stochastic gamma diffusion process Statistical inference with discrete sampling Estimated trend functions Forecasting Total stock of private cars-petrol in Spain;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Gutiérrez, R. & Nafidi, A. & Gutiérrez Sánchez, R., 2005. "Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 115-124, February.
    2. Manuel Arapis & Jiti Gao, 2006. "Empirical Comparisons in Short-Term Interest Rate Models Using Nonparametric Methods," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 310-345.
    3. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
    4. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
    5. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-93, July.
    6. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
    7. Ramón Gutiérrez & Patrica Román & Francisco Torres, 2001. "Inference on some parametric functions in the univeriate lognormal diffusion process with exogenous factors," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 357-373, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R. & Nafidi, A. & Pascual, A. & Ramos-Ábalos, E., 2011. "Three parameter gamma-type growth curve, using a stochastic gamma diffusion model: Computational statistical aspects and simulation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 234-243.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:86:y:2009:i:1:p:18-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.