Volatility, Jumps, and Predictability of Returns: A Sequential Analysis
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2011.553570
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- S. Bordignon & D. Raggi, 2008. "Volatility, Jumps and Predictability of Returns: a Sequential Analysis," Working Papers 636, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
References listed on IDEAS
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995.
"Stochastic Volatility,"
Papers
95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Eric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
- GHYSELS, Eric & HARVEY, Andrew & RENAULT, Eric, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1995069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002.
"Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
- Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-389, October.
- Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997.
"Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-2049, December.
- Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm54, Yale School of Management.
- Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm65, Yale School of Management.
- Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003.
"Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, February.
- Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis & Pan, Jun, 2001. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9fm6t5nb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation With Event Risk," NBER Working Papers 9103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002.
"Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
- Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996.
"Which Moments to Match?,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
- Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Merton, Robert C., 1971.
"Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
- R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998.
"Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models,"
Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
- Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, "undated". "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1996. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference And Comparison With Arch Models," Econometrics 9610002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012.
"Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
- S. Bordignon & D. Raggi, 2010. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: a Markov switching approach," Working Papers 694, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003.
"Alternative models for stock price dynamics,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
- Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamic," Working Papers 02-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Malik, S. & Pitt, M. K., 2011. "Modelling Stochastic Volatility with Leverage and Jumps: A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Approach via Particle Filtering," Working papers 318, Banque de France.
- Engle, Robert F. & White (the late), Halbert (ed.), 1999. "Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: Festschrift in Honour of Clive W. J. Granger," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296836, Decembrie.
- Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, June.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Eugenie Hol Uspensky, 2002.
"The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 667-689.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Eugenie Hol Uspensky, 2002. "The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 667-689, December.
- Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
- Michael Johannes, 2004. "The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous-Time Interest Rate Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 227-260, February.
- Davide Raggi, 2005. "Adaptive MCMC methods for inference on affine stochastic volatility models with jumps," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 235-250, July.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
- Malik, Sheheryar & Pitt, Michael K., 2009. "Modelling Stochastic Volatility with Leverage and Jumps: A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Approach via Particle Filtering," Economic Research Papers 271302, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
- Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 335-338, July.
- Malik, Sheheryar & Pitt, Michael K, 2009. "Modelling Stochastic Volatility with Leverage and Jumps : A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Approach via Particle Filtering," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 897, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
- Eraker, Bjorn, 2001. "MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Application to Finance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 177-191, April.
- Pitt, Michael K, 2002. "Smooth Particle Filters for Likelihood Evaluation and Maximisation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 651, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. "The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Lawal A. I. & Oloye M. I. & Otekunrin A. O. & Ajayi S. A., 2013. "Returns on Investments and Volatility Rate in the Nigerian Banking Industry," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1298-1313, October.
- Huang, Jing-Zhi & Ni, Jun & Xu, Li, 2022. "Leverage effect in cryptocurrency markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Michael S. Johannes & Nicholas G. Polson & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2009. "Optimal Filtering of Jump Diffusions: Extracting Latent States from Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2559-2599, July.
- Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Shephard, Neil, 2006.
"Impact of jumps on returns and realised variances: econometric analysis of time-deformed Levy processes,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 217-252.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Impact of jumps on returns and realised variances: econometric analysis of time-deformed Levy processes," Economics Papers 2003-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005.
"Volatility Forecasting,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
- Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006.
"Inference with non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 605-644, October.
- James E. Griffin & Mark F.J. Steel, 2002. "Inference With Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes for Stochastic Volatility," Econometrics 0201002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2003.
- Yueh-Neng Lin & Ken Hung, 2008. "Is Volatility Priced?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 39-75, May.
- Cheng, Ai-ru (Meg) & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ji, Chuanshu & Lee, Beom S., 2008. "A Gaussian approximation scheme for computation of option prices in stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 44-58, September.
- Meddahi, N., 2001.
"An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling,"
Cahiers de recherche
2001-29, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- MEDDAHI, Nour, 2001. "An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling," Cahiers de recherche 2001-29, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Nour Meddahi, 2001. "An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-70, CIRANO.
- Siddhartha Chib & Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, 2004.
"Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2004fe17, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Siddhartha Chib & Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models," Economics Papers 2004-W20, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Neil Shephard & Torben Andersen, 2008.
"Stochastic Volatility: Origins and Overview,"
Economics Papers
2008-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Neil Shephard & Torben G. Andersen, 2008. "Stochastic Volatility: Origins and Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 389, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Neil Shephard & Torben G. Andersen, 2008. "Stochastic Volatility: Origins and Overview," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe23, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2006. "Comparing stochastic volatility models through Monte Carlo simulations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1678-1699, April.
- Yun, Jaeho, 2011. "The role of time-varying jump risk premia in pricing stock index options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 833-846.
- Jones, Christopher S., 2003. "The dynamics of stochastic volatility: evidence from underlying and options markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 181-224.
- Carverhill, Andrew & Luo, Dan, 2023. "A Bayesian analysis of time-varying jump risk in S&P 500 returns and options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
- Yu, Jun & Yang, Zhenlin & Zhang, Xibin, 2006.
"A class of nonlinear stochastic volatility models and its implications for pricing currency options,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2218-2231, December.
- Jun Yu & Zhenlin Yang & Xibin Zhang, 2002. "A Class of Nonlinear Stochastic Volatility Models and Its Implications on Pricing Currency Options," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2004.
"Estimation methods for stochastic volatility models: a survey,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 613-649, December.
- Broto, Carmen & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2002. "Estimation methods for stochastic volatility models: a survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws025414, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Calvet, Laurent E. & Fearnley, Marcus & Fisher, Adlai J. & Leippold, Markus, 2015.
"What is beneath the surface? Option pricing with multifrequency latent states,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 498-511.
- Calvet , Laurent E. & Fearnley, Marcus & Adlai J. , Fisher & Markus, Leippold, 2013. "What's Beneath the Surface? Option Pricing with Multifrequency Latent States," HEC Research Papers Series 969, HEC Paris.
- Kaeck, Andreas, 2013. "Asymmetry in the jump-size distribution of the S&P 500: Evidence from equity and option markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1872-1888.
More about this item
Keywords
Auxiliary particle filters; Bayesian estimation; Leverage; MCMC; Return's predictability; Stochastic volatility with jumps;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:30:y:2011:i:6:p:669-695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/LECR20 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.