Volatility, Jumps, and Predictability of Returns: A Sequential Analysis
AbstractIn this article we propose a Monte Carlo algorithm for sequential parameter learning for a stochastic volatility model with leverage, nonconstant conditional mean and jumps. We are interested in estimating the time invariant parameters and the nonobservable dynamics involved in the model. Our simple but effective idea relies on the auxiliary particle filter algorithm mixed together with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology. Adding an MCMC step to the auxiliary particle filter prevents numerical degeneracies in the sequential algorithm and allows sequential evaluation of the fixed parameters and the latent processes. Empirical evaluation on simulated and real data is presented to assess the performance of the algorithm. A numerical comparison with a full MCMC procedure is also provided. We also extend our methodology to superposition models in which volatility is obtained by a linear combination of independent processes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.
Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/LECR20
Other versions of this item:
- S. Bordignon & D. Raggi, 2008. "Volatility, Jumps and Predictability of Returns: a Sequential Analysis," Working Papers 636, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002.
"Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1996.
"Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference And Comparison With Arch Models,"
- Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002.
"Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996.
"Which Moments to Match?,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
- Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003.
"Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, 02.
- R. C. Merton, 1970.
"Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model,"
58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
- Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995.
95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- GHYSELS, Eric & HARVEY, Andrew & RENAULT, Eric, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CORE Discussion Papers 1995069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
- Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
- Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm54, Yale School of Management.
- Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, 06.
- Davide Raggi, 2005. "Adaptive MCMC methods for inference on affine stochastic volatility models with jumps," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 235-250, 07.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Eugenie Hol Uspensky, 2002. "The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 667-689.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. " Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-49, December.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
- Charles Quanwei Cao & Gurdip S. Bakshi & Zhiwu Chen, 1997. "Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm65, Yale School of Management.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
- Lawal A. I. & Oloye M. I. & Otekunrin A. O. & Ajayi S. A., 2013. "Returns on Investments and Volatility Rate in the Nigerian Banking Industry," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1298-1313, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.