IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v334y2023ics0306261923000090.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating offshore wind contract for difference auctions to prepare bid strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Kell, Nicholas P.
  • van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik
  • Li, Liang
  • Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto
  • Pillai, Ajit C.

Abstract

This paper presents a novel agent-based, stochastic model, which uses game-theoretic principles to simulate Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions. The framework has use cases and implications for policymakers and renewable generators alike, and can be used by developers to prepare bidding strategy and for policymakers to empirically test auction design. The model is demonstrated through replication of the offshore wind CfD Allocation Round 3 (AR3) pot, and utilises high-level cost modelling distribution data to estimate bid prices for the competing projects. The model produces a distribution of most likely results which better categorises uncertainty, and through comparison of AR3 and simulation results, demonstrates how outcomes can be predicted with reasonable confidence by developers. Analysis show that the transmission network and grid connection charges are a significant barrier for projects in some geographical regions to be awarded a CfD contract, potentially hindering renewable deployment in those areas. Moreover, this paper demonstrates how players can use probability theory to select an optimum bidding strategy which maximises expected profit while factoring the uncertainty inherent in CfD auctions. Results show that a 1200 MW wind farm development can increase potential profits by £135 million over the CfD contract length in exchange for a 25 p.p. chance reduction in being awarded a subsidy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kell, Nicholas P. & van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Li, Liang & Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto & Pillai, Ajit C., 2023. "Simulating offshore wind contract for difference auctions to prepare bid strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:334:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923000090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120645
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923000090
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120645?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence M. Ausubel & Peter Cramton & Marek Pycia & Marzena Rostek & Marek Weretka, 2014. "Demand Reduction and Inefficiency in Multi-Unit Auctions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1366-1400.
    2. Kreiss, Jan & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Haufe, Marie-Christin, 2017. "Appropriate design of auctions for renewable energy support – Prequalifications and penalties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 512-520.
    3. Marijke Welisch and Jan Kreiss, 2019. "Uncovering Bidder Behaviour in the German PV Auction Pilot: Insights from Agent-based Modeling," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    4. Christian Hürlimann & Dolores S. Bengoa, 2017. "Corporate finance in renewable energy investments - a review about theory and practice," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 19(5), pages 592-631.
    5. Edward H. Bowman & Gary T. Moskowitz, 2001. "Real Options Analysis and Strategic Decision Making," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(6), pages 772-777, December.
    6. Kagel, John H. & Levin, Dan, 1986. "The Winner's Curse and Public Information in Common Value Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 894-920, December.
    7. Marijke Welisch, 2018. "The Importance of Penalties and Pre-qualifications: A Model-based Assessment of the UK Renewables Auction Scheme," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. Roger B. Myerson, 1981. "Optimal Auction Design," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 58-73, February.
    9. Mei, Jie & Chen, Chen & Wang, Jianhui & Kirtley, James L., 2019. "Coalitional game theory based local power exchange algorithm for networked microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 133-141.
    10. Robert Wilson, 1979. "Auctions of Shares," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(4), pages 675-689.
    11. Liu, Zhen & Zhang, Xiliang & Lieu, Jenny, 2010. "Design of the incentive mechanism in electricity auction market based on the signaling game theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1813-1819.
    12. Welisch, Marijke & Poudineh, Rahmatallah, 2020. "Auctions for allocation of offshore wind contracts for difference in the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 1266-1274.
    13. Lin, Jason & Pipattanasomporn, Manisa & Rahman, Saifur, 2019. "Comparative analysis of auction mechanisms and bidding strategies for P2P solar transactive energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    14. Anatolitis, Vasilios & Welisch, Marijke, 2017. "Putting renewable energy auctions into action – An agent-based model of onshore wind power auctions in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 394-402.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kell, Nicholas P. & Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto & Morstyn, Thomas & Lazakis, Iraklis & Pillai, Ajit C., 2023. "Methodology to prepare for UK’s offshore wind Contract for Difference auctions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    2. Christian Manuel Moreno Rocha & Jorge D. Pertuz Ortiz & Neyder A. Rodriguez Ibanez, 2023. "A Diffuse Analysis Based on Analytical Processes to Prioritize Barriers in the Development of Renewable Energy Technologies in Alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: Evidence," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 481-195, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kell, Nicholas P. & Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto & Morstyn, Thomas & Lazakis, Iraklis & Pillai, Ajit C., 2023. "Methodology to prepare for UK’s offshore wind Contract for Difference auctions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    2. Anatolitis, Vasilios & Azanbayev, Alina & Fleck, Ann-Katrin, 2022. "How to design efficient renewable energy auctions? Empirical insights from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Sheykhha, Siamak & Borggrefe, Frieder & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Policy implications of spatially differentiated renewable energy promotion: A multi-level scenario analysis of onshore wind auctioning in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Schnitzlein, Charles R. & Shao, Minjie, 2013. "Capacity constraints and the winner's curse in multi-unit common value auctions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 188-201.
    5. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2020. "Improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2020-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    6. Erwann SbaÏ & Olivier Armantier, 2006. "Estimation and comparison of treasury auction formats when bidders are asymmetric," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 745-779.
    7. Bose, A.S. & Sarkar, S., 2019. "India's e-reverse auctions (2017–2018) for allocating renewable energy capacity: An evaluation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 762-774.
    8. del Río, Pablo & Kiefer, Christoph P., 2023. "Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Kaplan, Todd R. & Zamir, Shmuel, 2015. "Advances in Auctions," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
    10. Susan Athey & Philip A. Haile, 2006. "Empirical Models of Auctions," NBER Working Papers 12126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Anatolitis, Vasilios & Welisch, Marijke, 2017. "Putting renewable energy auctions into action – An agent-based model of onshore wind power auctions in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 394-402.
    12. Vijay Krishna & Motty Perry, 1997. "Efficient Mechanism Design," Game Theory and Information 9703010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 1998.
    13. Burkett, Justin & Woodward, Kyle, 2020. "Uniform price auctions with a last accepted bid pricing rule," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    14. Lawrence M. Ausubel & Peter Cramton, 1997. "Auctioning Securities," Papers of Peter Cramton 98wpas, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised Mar 1998.
    15. Haufe, Marie-Christin & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin, 2018. "Auctions for renewable energy support – Suitability, design, and first lessons learned," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 217-224.
    16. Lundberg, Liv, 2019. "Auctions for all? Reviewing the German wind power auctions in 2017," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 449-458.
    17. Scott Duke Kominers & Alexander Teytelboym & Vincent P Crawford, 2017. "An invitation to market design," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 541-571.
    18. Loertscher, Simon & Mezzetti, Claudio, 2021. "A dominant strategy, double clock auction with estimation-based tatonnement," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(3), July.
    19. Pio Baake & Sebastian Schwenen & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2020. "Local Power Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1904, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Zou, Peng & Chen, Qixin & Xia, Qing & He, Chang & Kang, Chongqing, 2015. "Incentive compatible pool-based electricity market design and implementation: A Bayesian mechanism design approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 508-518.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:334:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923000090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.