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Uncovering Bidder Behaviour in the German PV Auction Pilot: Insights from Agent-based Modeling

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  • Marijke Welisch and Jan Kreiss

Abstract

This paper analyses bidder behaviour in the German photovoltaic (PV) auction pilot. It uses a novel approach combining insights from data analysis and decision theory to optimise an agent-based simulation model. We model both a uniform pricing (UP) scheme, a pay-as-bid (PAB) scheme, and a benchmark case, where agents adapt their bidding strategy. The findings are contrasted with empirical auction outcomes. The comparison shows that, especially in the early rounds, bid prices were above the costs - possibly due to uncertainties and false expectations concerning competition. This is particularly visible in the first round. Adapting their expectations to a higher competition level, bidders in the pay-as-bid simulation subsequently decrease their bids. From simulating a separate auction for arable land bidders, we see that this bidder type reduces support costs substantially and that an implicitly discriminatory auction yields more aggressive bids and can induce further cost reductions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marijke Welisch and Jan Kreiss, 2019. "Uncovering Bidder Behaviour in the German PV Auction Pilot: Insights from Agent-based Modeling," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-6-welisch
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Geßner, Daniel, 2023. "Performance of Renewable Energy Policies - Evidence from Germany's Transition to Auctions," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 105, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Kell, Nicholas P. & van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Li, Liang & Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto & Pillai, Ajit C., 2023. "Simulating offshore wind contract for difference auctions to prepare bid strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    3. Kell, Nicholas P. & Santibanez-Borda, Ernesto & Morstyn, Thomas & Lazakis, Iraklis & Pillai, Ajit C., 2023. "Methodology to prepare for UK’s offshore wind Contract for Difference auctions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    4. Taimyra Batz Li~neiro & Felix Musgens, 2021. "Lessons Learned from Photovoltaic Auctions in Germany," Papers 2104.07536, arXiv.org.
    5. Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra & Müsgens, Felix, 2021. "Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Anatolitis, Vasilios & Azanbayev, Alina & Fleck, Ann-Katrin, 2022. "How to design efficient renewable energy auctions? Empirical insights from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    7. del Río, Pablo & Kiefer, Christoph P., 2023. "Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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