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Learning only buys you so much: Practical limits on battery price reduction

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  • Hsieh, I-Yun Lisa
  • Pan, Menghsuan Sam
  • Chiang, Yet-Ming
  • Green, William H.

Abstract

Wide deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) would greatly facilitate global de-carbonization, but achieving the emission targets depends on future battery prices. Conventional learning curves for manufacturing costs, used in many battery projections, unrealistically predict battery prices will fall below $100/kWh by 2030, pushing EVs to hit price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in the absence of incentives. However, in reality, essential materials costs set practical lower bounds on battery prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsieh, I-Yun Lisa & Pan, Menghsuan Sam & Chiang, Yet-Ming & Green, William H., 2019. "Learning only buys you so much: Practical limits on battery price reduction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 218-224.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:239:y:2019:i:c:p:218-224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Karan Bhuwalka & Randolph E. Kirchain & Elsa A. Olivetti & Richard Roth, 2023. "Quantifying the drivers of long‐term prices in materials supply chains," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(1), pages 141-154, February.
    14. Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N. & Won, Hyun-Woo & Li, Yang & Sarathy, S. Mani & Xie, Xiaomin & Amer, Amer A., 2020. "Bridging the gap in a resource and climate-constrained world with advanced gasoline compression-ignition hybrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    15. Qiang Zhang & Kaijun Jiang & Yanqiang Kong & Jiangbo Wu & Xiaoze Du, 2021. "Study on Outlet Temperature Control of External Receiver for Solar Power Tower," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Zhang, Qiang & Cao, Donghong & Ge, Zhihua & Du, Xiaoze, 2020. "Response characteristics of external receiver for concentrated solar power to disturbance during operation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    17. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2023. "System price dynamics for battery storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    18. Yifan Wang & Laurence A. Wright, 2021. "A Comparative Review of Alternative Fuels for the Maritime Sector: Economic, Technology, and Policy Challenges for Clean Energy Implementation," World, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Xinman Guo & Sunliang Cao & Yang Xu & Xiaolin Zhu, 2021. "The Feasibility of Using Zero-Emission Electric Boats to Enhance the Techno-Economic Performance of an Ocean-Energy-Supported Coastal Hotel Building," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-42, December.
    20. Hsieh, I-Yun Lisa & Pan, Menghsuan Sam & Green, William H., 2020. "Transition to electric vehicles in China: Implications for private motorization rate and battery market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    21. Waewsak, Jompob & Ali, Shahid & Natee, Warut & Kongruang, Chuleerat & Chancham, Chana & Gagnon, Yves, 2020. "Assessment of hybrid, firm renewable energy-based power plants: Application in the southernmost region of Thailand," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    22. Xaviery N. Penisa & Michael T. Castro & Jethro Daniel A. Pascasio & Eugene A. Esparcia & Oliver Schmidt & Joey D. Ocon, 2020. "Projecting the Price of Lithium-Ion NMC Battery Packs Using a Multifactor Learning Curve Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    23. Burd, Joshua Thomas Jameson & Moore, Elizabeth A. & Ezzat, Hesham & Kirchain, Randolph & Roth, Richard, 2021. "Improvements in electric vehicle battery technology influence vehicle lightweighting and material substitution decisions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    24. Vecchi, Andrea & Sciacovelli, Adriano, 2023. "Long-duration thermo-mechanical energy storage – Present and future techno-economic competitiveness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).

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