IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v132y2014icp358-369.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating housing stock and energy system models as a strategy to improve heat decarbonisation assessments

Author

Listed:
  • Dodds, Paul E.

Abstract

The UK government heat strategy is partially based on decarbonisation pathways from the UK MARKAL energy system model. We review how heat provision is represented in UK MARKAL, identifying a number of shortcomings and areas for improvement. We present a completely revised model with improved estimations of future heat demands and a consistent representation of all heat generation technologies. This model represents all heat delivery infrastructure for the first time and uses dynamic growth constraints to improve the modelling of transitions according to innovation theory. Our revised model incorporates a simplified housing stock model, which is used produce highly-refined decarbonisation pathways for residential heat provision. We compare this disaggregated model against an aggregated equivalent, which is similar to the existing approach in UK MARKAL. Disaggregating does not greatly change the total residential fuel consumption in two scenarios, so the benefits of disaggregation will likely be limited if the focus of a study is elsewhere. Yet for studies of residential heat, disaggregation enables us to vary consumer behaviour and government policies on different house types, as well as highlighting different technology trends across the stock, in comparison with previous aggregated versions of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Dodds, Paul E., 2014. "Integrating housing stock and energy system models as a strategy to improve heat decarbonisation assessments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 358-369.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:132:y:2014:i:c:p:358-369
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.06.079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261914006618
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.06.079?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dodds, Paul E. & McDowall, Will, 2013. "The future of the UK gas network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 305-316.
    2. Kannan, Ramachandran & Strachan, Neil, 2009. "Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 416-428, April.
    3. Neil Strachan & Will Usher, 2012. "Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 121-139, July.
    4. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    5. Pukšec, Tomislav & Vad Mathiesen, Brian & Duić, Neven, 2013. "Potentials for energy savings and long term energy demand of Croatian households sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 15-25.
    6. Chaudry, Modassar & Wu, Jianzhong & Jenkins, Nick, 2013. "A sequential Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 473-483.
    7. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    8. Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
    9. Bauermann, Klaas & Spiecker, Stephan & Weber, Christoph, 2014. "Individual decisions and system development – Integrating modelling approaches for the heating market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 149-158.
    10. Yohanis, Yigzaw Goshu & Mondol, Jayanta Deb, 2010. "Annual variations of temperature in a sample of UK dwellings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 681-690, February.
    11. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2012. "Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 433-444.
    12. DeCarolis, Joseph F., 2011. "Using modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) to expand our thinking on energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 145-152, March.
    13. Kelly, Scott & Shipworth, Michelle & Shipworth, David & Gentry, Michael & Wright, Andrew & Pollitt, Michael & Crawford-Brown, Doug & Lomas, Kevin, 2013. "Predicting the diversity of internal temperatures from the English residential sector using panel methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 601-621.
    14. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Yamaguchi, Yukio & Okamura, Tomo & Taniguchi, Ayako & Yamaguchi, Yohei, 2010. "Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1944-1952, June.
    15. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    16. Muratori, Matteo & Roberts, Matthew C. & Sioshansi, Ramteen & Marano, Vincenzo & Rizzoni, Giorgio, 2013. "A highly resolved modeling technique to simulate residential power demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 465-473.
    17. Lund, Peter, 2006. "Market penetration rates of new energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3317-3326, November.
    18. DeCarolis, Joseph F. & Hunter, Kevin & Sreepathi, Sarat, 2012. "The case for repeatable analysis with energy economy optimization models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1845-1853.
    19. Shorrock, LD & Dunster, JE, 1997. "The physically-based model BREHOMES and its use in deriving scenarios for the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of the UK housing stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1027-1037, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oluleye, Gbemi & Allison, John & Hawker, Graeme & Kelly, Nick & Hawkes, Adam D., 2018. "A two-step optimization model for quantifying the flexibility potential of power-to-heat systems in dwellings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 215-228.
    2. Bloess, Andreas, 2019. "Impacts of heat sector transformation on Germany’s power system through increased use of power-to-heat," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 560-580.
    3. Qadrdan, Meysam & Fazeli, Reza & Jenkins, Nick & Strbac, Goran & Sansom, Robert, 2019. "Gas and electricity supply implications of decarbonising heat sector in GB," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 50-60.
    4. Delmastro, Chiara & Gargiulo, Maurizio, 2020. "Capturing the long-term interdependencies between building thermal energy supply and demand in urban planning strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    6. Vassilis M. Charitopoulos & Mathilde Fajardy & Chi Kong Chyong & David M. Reiner, 2022. "The case of 100% electrification of domestic heat in Great Britain," Working Papers EPRG2206, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    7. Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2020. "Flexible electricity use for heating in markets with renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Li, Pei-Hao & Keppo, Ilkka & Strachan, Neil, 2018. "Incorporating homeowners' preferences of heating technologies in the UK TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 716-727.
    9. Canet, Alexandre & Qadrdan, Meysam & Jenkins, Nick, 2021. "Heat demand mapping and assessment of heat supply options for local areas – The case study of Neath Port Talbot," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    10. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1611-1626.
    11. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    12. Flower, Jack & Hawker, Graeme & Bell, Keith, 2020. "Heterogeneity of UK residential heat demand and its impact on the value case for heat pumps," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Cao, Zhi & Liu, Gang & Duan, Huabo & Xi, Fengming & Liu, Guiwen & Yang, Wei, 2019. "Unravelling the mystery of Chinese building lifetime: A calibration and verification based on dynamic material flow analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 442-452.
    14. Chen, Huayi & Ma, Tieju, 2017. "Optimizing systematic technology adoption with heterogeneous agents," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 287-296.
    15. Wilson, C. & Pettifor, H. & Chryssochoidis, G., 2018. "Quantitative modelling of why and how homeowners decide to renovate energy efficiently," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1333-1344.
    16. McKenna, Eoghan & Thomson, Murray, 2016. "High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 445-461.
    17. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil & Dodds, Paul E. & Pudjianto, Danny & Strbac, Goran, 2015. "Synergies and trade-offs between governance and costs in electricity system transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 170-181.
    18. Daniel Scamman & Baltazar Solano-Rodríguez & Steve Pye & Lai Fong Chiu & Andrew Z. P. Smith & Tiziano Gallo Cassarino & Mark Barrett & Robert Lowe, 2020. "Heat Decarbonisation Modelling Approaches in the UK: An Energy System Architecture Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, April.
    19. Staffell, Iain, 2015. "Zero carbon infinite COP heat from fuel cell CHP," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 373-385.
    20. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1611-1626.
    21. Astudillo, Miguel F. & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Amor, Ben, 2017. "Can the household sector reduce global warming mitigation costs? sensitivity to key parameters in a TIMES techno-economic energy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 486-498.
    22. Hargreaves, Anthony & Cheng, Vicky & Deshmukh, Sandip & Leach, Matthew & Steemers, Koen, 2017. "Forecasting how residential urban form affects the regional carbon savings and costs of retrofitting and decentralized energy supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P3), pages 549-561.
    23. Jalil-Vega, F. & Hawkes, A.D., 2018. "Spatially resolved model for studying decarbonisation pathways for heat supply and infrastructure trade-offs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 1051-1072.
    24. Asaee, S. Rasoul & Sharafian, Amir & Herrera, Omar E. & Blomerus, Paul & Mérida, Walter, 2018. "Housing stock in cold-climate countries: Conversion challenges for net zero emission buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 88-100.
    25. Broad, Oliver & Hawker, Graeme & Dodds, Paul E., 2020. "Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    2. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    3. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.
    4. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    5. Jalil-Vega, F. & Hawkes, A.D., 2018. "Spatially resolved model for studying decarbonisation pathways for heat supply and infrastructure trade-offs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 1051-1072.
    6. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka, 2017. "Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 356-369.
    7. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Hickey, Conor & Deane, Paul & McInerney, Celine & Ó Gallachóir, Brian, 2019. "Is there a future for the gas network in a low carbon energy system?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 480-493.
    9. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    10. Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2014. "A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 335-348.
    11. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    12. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2015. "Short-term uncertainty in long-term energy system models — A case study of wind power in Denmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 157-167.
    13. Berntsen, Philip B. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 886-898.
    14. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    15. Fais, Birgit & Sabio, Nagore & Strachan, Neil, 2016. "The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 699-712.
    16. Daniel Scamman & Baltazar Solano-Rodríguez & Steve Pye & Lai Fong Chiu & Andrew Z. P. Smith & Tiziano Gallo Cassarino & Mark Barrett & Robert Lowe, 2020. "Heat Decarbonisation Modelling Approaches in the UK: An Energy System Architecture Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, April.
    17. Hargreaves, Anthony & Cheng, Vicky & Deshmukh, Sandip & Leach, Matthew & Steemers, Koen, 2017. "Forecasting how residential urban form affects the regional carbon savings and costs of retrofitting and decentralized energy supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P3), pages 549-561.
    18. Blanco, Herib & Codina, Victor & Laurent, Alexis & Nijs, Wouter & Maréchal, François & Faaij, André, 2020. "Life cycle assessment integration into energy system models: An application for Power-to-Methane in the EU," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    19. Sharma, Tarun & Glynn, James & Panos, Evangelos & Deane, Paul & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Rogan, Fionn & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2019. "High performance computing for energy system optimization models: Enhancing the energy policy tool kit," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 66-74.
    20. García-Gusano, Diego & Espegren, Kari & Lind, Arne & Kirkengen, Martin, 2016. "The role of the discount rates in energy systems optimisation models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 56-72.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:132:y:2014:i:c:p:358-369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.