Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Using modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) to expand our thinking on energy futures

Contents:

Author Info

  • DeCarolis, Joseph F.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Energy-economy optimization models - encoded with a set of structured, self-consistent assumptions and decision rules - have emerged as a key tool for the analysis of energy and climate policy at the national and international scale. Given the expansive system boundaries and multi-decadal timescales involved, addressing future uncertainty in these models is a critical challenge. The approach taken by many modelers is to build larger models with greater complexity to deal with structural uncertainty, and run a few highly detailed scenarios under different input assumptions to address parametric uncertainty. The result is often large and inflexible models used to conduct analysis that offers little insight. This paper introduces a technique borrowed from the operations research literature called modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) as a way to flex energy models and systematically explore the feasible, near-optimal solution space in order to develop alternatives that are maximally different in decision space but perform well with regard to the modeled objectives. The resultant MGA alternatives serve a useful role by challenging preconceptions and highlighting plausible alternative futures. A simple, conceptual model of the U.S. electric sector is presented to demonstrate the utility of MGA as an energy modeling technique.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V7G-506H0V5-1/2/1090775888ecd012c055bd27382f4d81
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 145-152

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:145-152

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Mathematical methods (JEL: C02) Optimization Uncertainty Modeling;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Greenblatt, Jeffery B. & Succar, Samir & Denkenberger, David C. & Williams, Robert H. & Socolow, Robert H., 2007. "Baseload wind energy: modeling the competition between gas turbines and compressed air energy storage for supplemental generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1474-1492, March.
    2. Huntington, Hillard G & Weyant, John P & Sweeney, James L, 1982. "Modeling for insights, not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 449-462.
    3. Peterson, Sonja, 2006. "Uncertainty and economic analysis of climate change : a survey of approaches and findings," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3778, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. DeCarolis, Joseph F. & Keith, David W., 2006. "The economics of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 395-410, March.
    5. Edmonds, Jae & Clarke, John & Dooley, James & Kim, Son H. & Smith, Steven J., 2004. "Stabilization of CO2 in a B2 world: insights on the roles of carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen, and transportation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-537, July.
    6. E. Downey Brill, Jr. & Shoou-Yuh Chang & Lewis D. Hopkins, 1982. "Modeling to Generate Alternatives: The HSJ Approach and an Illustration Using a Problem in Land Use Planning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 221-235, March.
    7. Tschang, F. Ted & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 1995. "A Bayesian technique for refining the uncertainty in global energy model forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-61, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. DeCarolis, Joseph F. & Hunter, Kevin & Sreepathi, Sarat, 2012. "The case for repeatable analysis with energy economy optimization models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1845-1853.
    2. Arie ten Cate, 2012. "The socially optimal energy transition in a residential neighbourhood in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 222, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Hunter, Kevin & Sreepathi, Sarat & DeCarolis, Joseph F., 2013. "Modeling for insight using Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis (Temoa)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 339-349.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:145-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.