Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Analysis and Forecasts using VAR/VEC Approach for Greece with Capital Formation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Andreas Georgantopoulos

    (Business College of Athens, Greece)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product for Greece. The study examines a trivariate system with capital formation for the period 1980-2010. Robust empirical results indicate that all variables are integrated of order one and cointegration analysis reports that cointegrating relationship exists between the variables. VAR/VEC approach suggests that all variables return to the long-run equilibrium whenever there is a deviation from the cointegrating relationship and that unidirectional causal links exists running from capital formation and electricity consumption to RGDP in the short-run implying that the economy of Greece is strongly energy dependent. Forecasts for the period 2011-2020 indicate increasing consumption of electricity and positive growth rates from 2013. Policy makers will need to liberalise the electricity sector and to turn the economy towards renewable and natural gas sources in order to reduce imports of oil and coal dependency.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/256/154
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/256/154
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Econjournals in its journal International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 263-278

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2012-04-6

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.econjournals.com

    Related research

    Keywords: Electricity consumption; Economic Growth; Capital Formation; Cointegration; Greece;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Zamani, Mehrzad, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1135-1140, November.
    2. Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1627-1632, August.
    3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    4. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    5. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    6. Glasure, Yong U. & Lee, Aie-Rie, 1998. "Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and energy: The case of South Korea and Singapore," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 17-25, March.
    7. Squalli, Jay, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Bounds and causality analyses of OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1192-1205, November.
    8. Glasure, Yong U., 2002. "Energy and national income in Korea: further evidence on the role of omitted variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 355-365, July.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    10. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2007. "The relationship between energy and production: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1165, November.
    11. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    12. Ozturk, Ilhan & Aslan, Alper & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2010. "Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4422-4428, August.
    13. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2003. "Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-37, January.
    14. Kaplan, Muhittin & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 31-41, June.
    15. Francis, Brian M. & Moseley, Leo & Iyare, Sunday Osaretin, 2007. "Energy consumption and projected growth in selected Caribbean countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1224-1232, November.
    16. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 849-856, November.
    17. Yoo, S.-H., 2006. "The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3573-3582, December.
    18. Stern, David I., 1997. "Limits to substitution and irreversibility in production and consumption: A neoclassical interpretation of ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 197-215, June.
    19. Ferguson, Ross & Wilkinson, William & Hill, Robert, 2000. "Electricity use and economic development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(13), pages 923-934, November.
    20. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 211-216.
    21. Shiu, Alice & Lam, Pun-Lee, 2004. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-54, January.
    22. Hatemi, A. & Irandoust, M., 2005. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Sweden: A Leveraged Bootstrap Approach, 1965-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 87-98.
    23. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    25. Mehrara, Mohsen, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic growth: The case of oil exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2939-2945, May.
    26. Mehdi Abid & Maamar Sebri, 2012. "Energy Consumption-Economic Growth Nexus: Does the Level of Aggregation Matter?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 55-62.
    27. Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April.
    28. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Singh, Baljeet, 2007. "The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for the Fiji Islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1141-1150, November.
    29. Evan Lau & Xiao-Hui Chye & Chee-Keong Choong, 2011. "Energy-Growth Causality: Asian Countries Revisited," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 140-149.
    30. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2005. "Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 857-872, November.
    31. Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
    32. Lorde, Troy & Waithe, Kimberly & Francis, Brian, 2010. "The importance of electrical energy for economic growth in Barbados," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1411-1420, November.
    33. Mahadevan, Renuka & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2007. "Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2481-2490, April.
    34. Ghali, Khalifa H. & El-Sakka, M. I. T., 2004. "Energy use and output growth in Canada: a multivariate cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 225-238, March.
    35. Kerstin, Enflo & Kander, Astrid & Schön, Lennart, 2008. "Electrification and energy productivity," CIRCLE Electronic Working Papers 2008/16, Lund University, CIRCLE - Center for Innovation, Research and Competences in the Learning Economy.
    36. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa: A trivariate causality test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 635-640, September.
    37. Kouakou, Auguste K., 2011. "Economic growth and electricity consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from time series analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3638-3644, June.
    38. Janesh Sami, 2011. "Multivariate Cointegration and Causality between Exports, Electricity Consumption and Real Income per Capita: Recent Evidence from Japan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(3), pages 59-68, November.
    39. Jumbe, Charles B. L., 2004. "Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 61-68, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Maria Pempetzoglou, 2014. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Linear and Nonlinear Causality Investigation for Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 263-273.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2012-04-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilhan Ozturk).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.