IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2011i2p31-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kaplan, Muhittin

    (Meliksah University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 38010, Kayseri, Turkey)

  • Ozturk, Ilhan

    (Cag University, Faculty of Economics and Business, 33800, Mersin, Turkey)

  • Kalyoncu, Huseyin

    (Meliksah University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 38010, Kayseri, Turkey.)

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkey during 1971–2006. We employed two multivariate models, namely demand model and production model, based on vector error correction model. Then, we tested Granger causality after finding cointegration among variables for the both models. The results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth and vice versa. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further energy consumption. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaplan, Muhittin & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 31-41, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:2:p:31-41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_11/rjef2_2011p31-41.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karanfil, Fatih, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth revisited: Does the size of unrecorded economy matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3019-3025, August.
    2. Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December.
    3. Erdal, Gülistan & Erdal, Hilmi & Esengün, Kemal, 2008. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3838-3842, October.
    4. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 3220-3225, December.
    5. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    6. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: Some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs Based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correctio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-440, August.
    7. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    8. Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April.
    9. Glasure, Yong U. & Lee, Aie-Rie, 1998. "Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and energy: The case of South Korea and Singapore," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 17-25, March.
    10. Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
    11. Oh, Wankeun & Lee, Kihoon, 2004. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 973-981, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "Energy consumption and aggregate income in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis," MPRA Paper 28494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Energy consumption and GDP in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 137-153, February.
    3. Farzana Sharmin & Mohammed Robayet Khan & Mohammed Robayet Khan, 2016. "A Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth in Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 477-494.
    4. Yıldırım, Ertugrul & Sukruoglu, Deniz & Aslan, Alper, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-21.
    5. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    6. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    7. Esseghir, Asma & Haouaoui Khouni, Leila, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and sustainable development: The case of the Union for the Mediterranean countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 218-225.
    8. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    9. Phung Thanh Binh, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Threshold Cointegration and Causality Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, June.
    10. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    11. Salahuddin, Mohammad & Gow, Jeff, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 44-58.
    12. Jaganath Behera, 2015. "Examined the Energy-Led Growth Hypothesis in India: Evidence from Time Series Analysis," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(4), pages 46-56, December.
    13. Bilgili, Faik & Doğan, İbrahim & H. Tülüce, Nadide & Kuşkaya, Sevda, 2014. "The impact of biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric energy consumption on industrial production: A threshold cointegration model with regime shifts," MPRA Paper 90168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 50-65, January.
    16. Oh, Wankeun & Lee, Kihoon, 2004. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 973-981, December.
    17. Santos, Carlos Filipe & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2014. "O nexus energia-crescimento e o nível da auto-suficiência na produção de petróleo: análise com macro painel [Energy-growth nexus and oil self-sufficiency: macro panel analysis]," MPRA Paper 57008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jaruwan Chontanawat & Lester C Hunt & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 113, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    19. Jamal BOUOIYOUR & Refk SELMI & Ilhan OZTURK, 2014. "The Nexus between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights from Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 621-635.
    20. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2010. "Dynamic modelling of energy consumption, capital stock, and real income in G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-581, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy consumption; Economic growth; Causality; Cointegration; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:2:p:31-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.