IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-15-00027.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Growth, inflation, interest rate and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Salim Ergene

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

This paper attempts to examine empirically the dynamic relationship between inflation, growth and interest rate under the presence of informal economy by employing panel VAR techniques over the period from 1960-Q1 to 2010-Q4. The size of the informal economy is quarterly estimated to uncover the short run interactions between variables by following the two sector dynamic general equilibrium approach proposed in the literature. This paper empirically contributes that interest rate has a negative impact on both growth and the size of the informal activities, while inflation does not have a significant effect on them. The influence of interest rate on growth and the size of the informal economy is found to be robust to VAR order. The size of the underground economy has a positive impact on growth, however, the effects of growth on the size of the informal activities are not robust to VAR order. The causality from growth to the size of the informal activities depends on the order in the vector autoregression system. The empiric analysis proves that the fluctuations in interest rate are mostly carried out by the changes in inflation. The causal relation from inflation to interest rate is significantly stronger than the causal relation from interest rate to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Salim Ergene, 2015. "Growth, inflation, interest rate and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 750-763.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I1-P79.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    2. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    3. Niloy Bose & Jill A. Holman & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2007. "The Optimal Public Expenditure Financing Policy: Does The Level Of Economic Development Matter?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(3), pages 433-452, July.
    4. De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
    5. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    6. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 275-301, April.
    7. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1992. "On the Estimation of Panel-Data Models with Serial Correlation When Instruments Are Not Strictly Exogenous: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 26-29, January.
    8. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    9. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    10. Massenot, Baptiste & Straub, Stéphane, 2011. "Informal Sector and Economic Growth: The Supply of Credit Channel," TSE Working Papers 11-254, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    11. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Brock, William A., 1980. "Time consistency and optimal government policies in perfect foresight equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 183-212, April.
    12. Koreshkova, Tatyana A., 2006. "A quantitative analysis of inflation as a tax on the underground economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 773-796, May.
    13. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    14. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1992. "On the Estimation of Panel-Data Models with Serial Correlation When Instruments Are Not Strictly Exogenous," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, January.
    15. Chamley, Christophe, 1985. "Efficient Taxation in a Stylized Model of Intertemporal General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 451-468, June.
    16. Ihrig, Jane & Moe, Karine S., 2004. "Lurking in the shadows: the informal sector and government policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 541-557, April.
    17. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    18. Guidotti, Pablo E. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1993. "The optimal inflation tax when money reduces transactions costs : A reconsideration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-205, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    2. Mustafa Kasim & Bentouir Naima, 2018. "The Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Nominal Interest Rate in Bolivarian Republic Of Venezuela: Revisiting Fisher’s Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 7(4), pages 214-224, November.
    3. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2023. "The case for independence: Does central bank independence curb the spread of the underground economy?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(3), pages 407-435, August.
    4. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mazhar, Ummad & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2017. "Taxing the unobservable: The impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 89-103.
    2. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2021. "Hide and seek: IMF intervention and the shadow economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-319.
    3. Elgin, Ceyhun & Uras, Burak R., 2013. "Public debt, sovereign default risk and shadow economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 628-640.
    4. Emmanuel Umoru Haruna & Usman Alhassan, 2022. "Does digitalization limit the proliferation of the shadow economy in African countries? An in‐depth panel analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 34-62, July.
    5. Ceyhun Elgin & Muhammed Burak Sezgin, 2017. "Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and Application for the Turkish Economy," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 55(4), pages 261-289, December.
    6. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    7. Manamba EPAPHRA & Moga Tano JILENGA, 2017. "Currency Demand, the Subterranean Economy and Tax Evasion: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 187-211, June.
    8. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    9. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. D’Hernoncourt, Johanna & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2012. "The not so dark side of trust: Does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 97-121.
    11. Cerda, Rodrigo A. & Saravia, Diego, 2013. "Optimal taxation with heterogeneous firms and informal sector," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 39-61.
    12. Ceyhun Elgin & Burak Uras, 2013. "Is informality a barrier to financial development?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 309-331, August.
    13. Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Growth In The Shadows: Effect Of The Shadow Economy On U.S. Economic Growth Over More Than A Century," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 50-67, January.
    14. Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Shadow Economies Around the World: Evidence from Metropolitan Areas," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 301-322, April.
    15. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Dr. Robert Oleschak, 2021. "Financial inclusion, technology and their impacts on monetary and fiscal policy: theory and evidence," Working Papers 2021-04, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.
    18. Solis-Garcia, Mario & Xie, Yingtong, 2018. "Measuring the size of the shadow economy using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 258-275.
    19. Joseph Keneck-Massil & Alphonse Noah, 2019. "Shadow economy and educational systems in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1467-1478.
    20. Marshall, Emily C. & Saunoris, James & Solis-Garcia, Mario & Do, Trang, 2023. "Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    panel var; inflation; interest rate; growth; informal economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.