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Financial inclusion, technology and their impacts on monetary and fiscal policy: theory and evidence

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  • Dr. Robert Oleschak

Abstract

In economies with a low level of financial inclusion (FI), most activities are settled in cash and are thus more difficult to trace, record, and tax. I show theoretically that economies with inefficient financial technologies exhibit low levels of FI and of tax revenue and that using an inflation tax as an additional source of income improves welfare. Improvements in technology lead to a higher level of FI, increased tax revenue and lower (optimal) inflation. I test this prediction using panel data from a broad set of countries. The data show a strong and robust negative link between FI and inflation and a positive link between FI and tax revenue for developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Robert Oleschak, 2021. "Financial inclusion, technology and their impacts on monetary and fiscal policy: theory and evidence," Working Papers 2021-04, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2021-04
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial inclusion; financial technology; monetary policy; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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