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Does demographic dividend yield economic dividend? India, a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Gargi Bhattacharya

    (Mahadevananda Mahavidyalaya)

  • Sushil Kr. Haldar

    (Jadavpur University)

Abstract

The share of working-age population changes during the process of demographic transition; the size of working age-population in India does vary across the major states over the decades, 1971-2011. Using panel data across fifteen major states for four time points, this paper examines the effects of different age cohorts of working age-population, mortality, fertility, life expectancy, investment in social sector comprising education and health and investment in physical capital (as proxy by credit deposit ratio ) on growth of income measured by per capita net state domestic product. Keeping in mind the problem of endogeneity between demographic outcome and economic growth, we have formulated different econometric models and the results support the effect of conventional growth predictors like investment in human capital, credit-deposit ratio along with shares of working age population between age 30-44 and 45-59. Population growth and fertility are not found significant predictors but life expectancy and infant mortality appear to have significant effect on growth of income. The growth of the share of working population adversely affects the growth of income which re-ignites the old debate whether India is capable or not to reap the benefits of demographic dividend.

Suggested Citation

  • Gargi Bhattacharya & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2015. "Does demographic dividend yield economic dividend? India, a case study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1274-1291.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Sulekha Hembram & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2019. "Beta, sigma and club convergence: Indian experience from 1980 to 2015," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 343-366, December.
    3. Sulekha Hembram & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2020. "Is India experiencing health convergence? An empirical analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 591-618, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Transition; Demographic Dividend; Panel Data; Fertility; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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