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The Method Of Simulated Maximum Likelihood For The Estimaton Of Dynamic Ordered Probit: An Application To Country-Risk For Non-Developed Countries

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  • González, M.

    ()

  • Minguez, R.

    ()

Abstract

This paper aims to give a detailed explanation of the econometric methodology necessary to estimate dynamic probit models with ordinal dependent variables. A typology of cases are established which appear when considering different choices of individual heterogeneity along with time correlation. To be able to estimate by maximum likelihood the models which come out of the different alternatives proposed, simulation techniques are used and put into practice by the GHK simulator and, in this way, estimators by simulated maximum likelihood are obtained. Finally, all the models described are used to measure and determine the macroeconomic factors which explain the ratings of country-risk in non-developed countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 99-133

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:3_3

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Related research

Keywords: Country risk; panel data; external debt; dynamic ordered probit;

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References

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  1. Axel Borsch-Supan & Vassilis Hajivassiliou & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1992. "Health, Children, and Elderly Living Arrangements: A Multiperiod-Multinomial Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 79-108 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, October.
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  7. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1993. "Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 347-368, August.
  8. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994. "Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 609-32, November.
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  13. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  15. Jerry A. Hausman & Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices (Reprint 029)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 26-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  16. Lee, Suk Hun, 1993. "Are the credit ratings assigned by bankers based on the willingness of LDC borrowers to repay?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 349-359, April.
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