IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/swe/wpaper/2009-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Sequential-move Games by a Recursive Conditioning Simulator

Author

Listed:
  • Shiko Maruyama

    (School of Economics, The University of New South Wales)

Abstract

Sequential decision-making is a noticeable feature of strategic interactions among agents. The full estimation of sequential games, however, has been challenging due to the sheer computational burden, especially when the game is large and asymmetric. In this paper, I propose an estimation method for discrete choice sequential games that is computationally feasible, easy-to-implement, and e¢ cient, by modifying the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane (GHK) simulator, the most widely used probit simulator. I show that the recursive nature of the GHK simulator is easily dovetailed with the sequential structure of strategic interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiko Maruyama, 2009. "Estimating Sequential-move Games by a Recursive Conditioning Simulator," Discussion Papers 2009-01, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2009-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2009-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Kooreman & Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2007. "A discrete-choice model with social interactions: with an application to high school teen behavior," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 599-624.
    2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
    3. Bajari, Patrick & Hong, Han & Krainer, John & Nekipelov, Denis, 2010. "Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interactions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 469-482.
    4. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    5. Federico Ciliberto & Elie Tamer, 2009. "Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1791-1828, November.
    6. Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January.
    7. Hiedemann, Bridget, 1998. "A Stackelberg model of Social Security acceptance decisions in dual career households," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 263-278, February.
    8. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994. "Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 609-632, November.
    9. Che‐Lin Su & Kenneth L. Judd, 2012. "Constrained Optimization Approaches to Estimation of Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2213-2230, September.
    10. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-959, July.
    11. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
    12. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1993. "Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 347-368, August.
    13. A. Pakes & J. Porter & Kate Ho & Joy Ishii, 2015. "Moment Inequalities and Their Application," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 315-334, January.
    14. Curtis S. Signorino & Ahmer Tarar, 2006. "A Unified Theory and Test of Extended Immediate Deterrence," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 586-605, July.
    15. Patrick Bajari & Han Hong & Stephen P. Ryan, 2010. "Identification and Estimation of a Discrete Game of Complete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(5), pages 1529-1568, September.
    16. Kooreman, Peter, 1994. "Estimation of Econometric Models of Some Discrete Games," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 255-268, July-Sept.
    17. Kai A. Konrad & Harald Künemund & Kjell Erik Lommerud & Julio R. Robledo, 2002. "Geography of the Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 981-998, September.
    18. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden, 1998. "The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 863-896, July.
    19. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134.
    20. Michael J. Mazzeo, 2002. "Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(2), pages 221-242, Summer.
    21. Shiko Maruyama, 2006. "Welfare Analysis Incorporating a Structural Entry-Exit Model: A Case Study of Medicare HMOs," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-166, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    22. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, January.
    23. Bas, Muhammet Ali & Signorino, Curtis S. & Walker, Robert W., 2008. "Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 21-40, January.
    24. Chernew, Michael & Gowrisankaran, Gautam & Fendrick, A. Mark, 2002. "Payer type and the returns to bypass surgery: evidence from hospital entry behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 451-474, May.
    25. Andrew Sweeting, 2005. "Coordination Games, Multiple Equilibria and the Timing of Radio Commercials," 2005 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Shiko Maruyama, 2008. "Measuring the Welfare Effect of Entry in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Medicare HMOs," Discussion Papers 2008-01, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    27. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yafeng & Graham, Brett, 2009. "Generalized Maximum Entropy estimation of discrete sequential move games of perfect information," MPRA Paper 21331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wang, Yafeng & Graham, Brett, 2010. "Simulation Based Estimation of Discrete Sequential Move Games of Perfect Information," MPRA Paper 23153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nathan Yang, 2012. "Burger King and McDonald’s: Where’s the Spillover?," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 255-281, July.
    4. Yafeng Wang & Brett Graham, 2013. "Generalized Maximum Entropy Estimation of Discrete Sequential Move Games of Perfect Information," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maruyama, Shiko, 2014. "Estimation of finite sequential games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 716-726.
    2. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    3. Aradillas-Lopez, Andres, 2012. "Pairwise-difference estimation of incomplete information games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 120-140.
    4. Bryan S. Graham & Andrin Pelican, 2023. "Scenario sampling for large supermodular games," CeMMAP working papers 15/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. A. Ronald Gallant & Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja, 2018. "The Dynamic Spillovers of Entry: An Application to the Generic Drug Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1189-1211, March.
    6. Paul B. Ellickson & Sanjog Misra, 2011. "Structural Workshop Paper --Estimating Discrete Games," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(6), pages 997-1010, November.
    7. Bryan S. Graham & Andrin Pelican, 2023. "Scenario Sampling for Large Supermodular Games," Papers 2307.11857, arXiv.org.
    8. Michaela Draganska & Sanjog Misra & Victor Aguirregabiria & Pat Bajari & Liran Einav & Paul Ellickson & Dan Horsky & Sridhar Narayanan & Yesim Orhun & Peter Reiss & Katja Seim & Vishal Singh & Raphael, 2008. "Discrete choice models of firms’ strategic decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 399-416, December.
    9. Liu, Nianqing & Vuong, Quang & Xu, Haiqing, 2017. "Rationalization and identification of binary games with correlated types," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 249-268.
    10. Wang, Yafeng & Graham, Brett, 2009. "Generalized Maximum Entropy estimation of discrete sequential move games of perfect information," MPRA Paper 21331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jeremy T. Fox, 2018. "Estimating matching games with transfers," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-38, March.
    12. Alberto Bisin & Andrea Moro & Giorgio Topa, 2011. "The empirical content of models with multiple equilibria in economies with social interactions," Staff Reports 504, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Paul L. E. Grieco, 2014. "Discrete games with flexible information structures: an application to local grocery markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(2), pages 303-340, June.
    14. Luo, Yao & Xiao, Ping & Xiao, Ruli, 2022. "Identification of dynamic games with unobserved heterogeneity and multiple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 343-367.
    15. Wang, Yafeng & Graham, Brett, 2010. "Simulation Based Estimation of Discrete Sequential Move Games of Perfect Information," MPRA Paper 23153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Nianqing Liu & Quang Vuong & Haiqing Xu, 2012. "Rationalization and Identification of Discrete Games with Correlated Types," Department of Economics Working Papers 130915, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics.
    17. Jun, Sung Jae & Pinkse, Joris, 2020. "Counterfactual prediction in complete information games: Point prediction under partial identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 394-429.
    18. Andrew Sweeting, 2005. "Coordination Games, Multiple Equilibria and the Timing of Radio Commercials," 2005 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Federico Ciliberto & Elie Tamer, 2009. "Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1791-1828, November.
    20. Andrew Sweeting, 2009. "The strategic timing incentives of commercial radio stations: An empirical analysis using multiple equilibria," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 40(4), pages 710-742, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2009-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hongyi Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/senswau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.