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Estimating Sequential-move Games by a Recursive Conditioning Simulator

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Author Info
Shiko Maruyama () (School of Economics, The University of New South Wales)

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Abstract

Sequential decision-making is a noticeable feature of strategic interactions among agents. The full estimation of sequential games, however, has been challenging due to the sheer computational burden, especially when the game is large and asymmetric. In this paper, I propose an estimation method for discrete choice sequential games that is computationally feasible, easy-to-implement, and e¢ cient, by modifying the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane (GHK) simulator, the most widely used probit simulator. I show that the recursive nature of the GHK simulator is easily dovetailed with the sequential structure of strategic interactions.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, The University of New South Wales in its series Discussion Papers with number 2009-01.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2009-01

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  2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kooreman, Peter, 1994. "Estimation of Econometric Models of Some Discrete Games," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 255-68, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chernew, Michael & Gowrisankaran, Gautam & Fendrick, A. Mark, 2002. "Payer type and the returns to bypass surgery: evidence from hospital entry behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 451-474, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden, 1998. "The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 863-896, July.
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  11. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Shiko Maruyama, 2006. "Welfare Analysis Incorporating a Structural Entry-Exit Model: A Case Study of Medicare HMOs," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-166, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  13. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994. "Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 609-32, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Shiko Maruyama, 2008. "Measuring the Welfare Effect of Entry in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Medicare HMOs," Discussion Papers 2008-01, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  16. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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