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Fiscal Deficits, Current Deficits and Investment: A Panel Causality Framework of 20 OECD countries

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  • Ilir MITEZA

Abstract

This paper assesses the presence of a causal relationship and the impact of budget deficits and investment spending on current account deficits using data for 20 OECD countries for the 1974-2008 period. The analysis adapts the Ganger causality technique to a panel data framework through the Arellano-Bond difference GMM estimator. The estimation finds the presence of a causal relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits as well as between investment and current account deficits. Growing budget deficits lead to higher current account deficits, especially in the short-term. This twin deficit effect is eroded in the medium term and appears to be small in the long-run. Increases in investment spending have a similar effect over time, causing the current account to worsen particularly in the short term.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:12:y:2012:i:1_1

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Related research

Keywords: Twin deficits; Arrellano-Bond GMM estimator; causality; panel data.;

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References

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  1. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata," Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development.
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  8. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1986. "Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: Some evidence for the United Kingdom," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 197-224, March.
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  10. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Ghazi Shukur, 2002. "Multivariate-based causality tests of twin deficits in the US," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 817-824.
  11. Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "A century of current account dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November.
  12. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Twin deficits in CEEC economies: evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1071-1081.
  13. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
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