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Flujos de capitales, restricciones de liquidez y paradas súbitas: lecciones de países emergentes

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  • Andrés Mauricio Vargas P.

Abstract

"¿Por qué suceden las paradas súbitas en los flujos de capitales? La hipótesis de este artículo es que es por la elevada deuda externa de corto plazo. La financiación de la inversión de largo plazo con recursos de corto plazo deja a la economía expuesta a una restricción de crédito. Se utiliza un modelo en el que se determinan conjuntamente la madurez y el costo del endeudamiento externo. En estas circunstancias la conjetura de los prestamistas sobre la capacidad de pago del deudor ocasiona la parada súbita. El evento también puede ser desencadenado por cambios en las condiciones globales de liquidez y/o del apetito por riesgo. La estimación se hizo para un grupo de 39 países emergentes en el periodo 1984-2005. Los resultados confirman el papel desestabilizador de la deuda externa de corto plazo, el déficit en cuenta corriente y el contagio. Se encuentra además que el grado de apertura al capital no incrementa sustancialmente la probabilidad de crisis, mientras que los países que experimentan una liberalización financiera rápida son más proclives a la crisis." “This paper argues that high external short-term debt is the main determinant of sudden stops in capital flows. Large external short-term debt increases macroeconomic vulnerabilities through negative balance sheet effects. Crises can also occur due to changes in liquidity conditions or risk aversion. A model that jointly determines maturity and cost of external debt is used, covering 39 emerging economies for the period 1984-2005. The main results may be summarized as follows: higher external-short-term debt increases the probability of crisis, as well as currents account deficits and contagion effects, whereas more financial openness leads economies to be more vulnerable to capital reversal, especially for those countries which undergone financial liberalization at a faster pace.”

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Mauricio Vargas P., 2008. "Flujos de capitales, restricciones de liquidez y paradas súbitas: lecciones de países emergentes," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013333
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coyuntura Económica; Paradas Súbitas; Deuda de Corto Plazo; Contagio; Liberalización Financiera; Flujos de Capital; Cuenta Corriente; Probit Informes de Investigación;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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