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Flujos de capital y frenazos súbitos: teoría, historia y una nueva estimación

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  • César Eduardo Tamayo T.
  • Andrés Mauricio Vargas P.

Abstract

“Este trabajo es una nueva aproximación a la ocurrencia de frenazos súbitos a partir de los problemas de liquidez como su principal determinante. Se presenta una extensión al modelo planteado originalmente por Rodrik y Velasco (1999) y se estima un modelo Probit para una muestra de 39 países y el período 1978 - 2006 en el que se buscan los principales determinantes de la ocurrencia de crisis. Los resultados confirman la hipótesis de iliquidez mientras que cuestionan la acumulación de Reservas como condición suficiente para reducir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de crisis en la misma línea de Calvo (2006). Asimismo, el ejercicio ofrece un nuevo acercamiento al papel que juega el grado de apertura al capital en la incidencia de frenazos súbitos. Para el caso de Colombia se observa que la probabilidad estimada de sufrir crisis ha caído sustancialmente, producto de menores déficits en cuenta corriente y una caída sistemática en la deuda de corto plazo desde mediados de los anos 1990.”

Suggested Citation

  • César Eduardo Tamayo T. & Andrés Mauricio Vargas P., 2007. "Flujos de capital y frenazos súbitos: teoría, historia y una nueva estimación," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013341
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    1. Andrés Mauricio Vargas P., 2008. "Flujos de capitales, restricciones de liquidez y paradas súbitas: lecciones de países emergentes," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coyuntura Económica; Informes de Investigación; Frenazos Súbitos; Deuda de Corto Plazo; Probit; Controles al Capital; Flujos de Capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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