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Testing for PPP Using SADC Real Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Thabo Mokoena

    (South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Renee van Eyden

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, nonlinear tests of nonstationarity, and Bayesian unit root tests, applied to ten SADC countries. The Bayesian tests were found to be biased in favour of a trend stationary model in all cases. It is argued that nonlinear approaches to exchange rate adjustments are likely to provide a firmer basis for inference and stronger support for the PPP in the long-term. This is more so at 1 per cent and 5 per cent levels of significance.

Suggested Citation

  • Thabo Mokoena & Rangan Gupta & Renee van Eyden, 2008. "Testing for PPP Using SADC Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 200822, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:200822
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mulatu F. Zehirun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Francis M. Kemegue, 2015. "Assessment of Monetary Union in SADC: Evidence from Cointegration and Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 201502, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "Is the Rand Really Decoupled from Economic Fundamentals?," Working Papers 201439, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Mulatu F. Zerihun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach, 2018. "Is SADC an optimal currency area? Evidence from the generalized purchasing power parity test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
    4. David De Villiers & Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Towards resolving the purchasing power parity (PPP) ‘Puzzle’ in newly industrialized countries (NIC’s)," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 161-180, February.
    5. Riané de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander, 2013. "Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(1), March.
    6. Thabo M. Mokoena & Gupta, R. & Van Eyden, R., 2009. "Half-Life Deviations from PPP in the South African Development Community (SADC)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    7. Zerihun, Mulatu F. & Breitenbach, Marthinus C., 2016. "Nonlinear approaches in testing PPP: Evidence from Southern African development community," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 162-167.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing Power Parity; Nonlinear Nonstationarity Tests; Bayesian Unit Root Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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