IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000107/006899.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bonanzas de flujos de capital: una mirada que abarca el pasado y el presente

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Vincent R. Reinhart

Abstract

En este artículo, un algoritmo cataloga las bonanzas de entradas de capital tanto a economías emergentes como a economías avanzadas desde 1980 a 2007 para 181 países y desde 1960 a 2007 para un subconjunto de 66 economías de todas las regiones. Factores globales como los precios de los productos básicos, las tasas de interés internacional y el crecimiento de las economías más grandes del mundo tienen un efecto sistemático en el ciclo global de flujos de capital. Las bonanzas no son una bendición para las economías avanzadas ni para los mercados emergentes. En el caso de estas últimas, las bonanzas de entradas de capital están relacionadas con una mayor probabilidad de crisis económicas. En los países en desarrollo las bonanzas están asociadas a políticas fiscales procíclicas y a intentos por controlar o evitar una apreciación de la tasa de cambio, quemuy probablemente contribuyen a la vulnerabilidad económica. En el caso de las economías avanzadas,los resultados no son tan claros. Las bonanzas se relacionan con resultados macroeconómicos másvolátiles en cuanto al crecimiento del PIB, la inflación y las cuentas externas; además, las bonanzasvan seguidas de un período de crecimiento económico más lento y de una disminución sostenidaen el precio de las acciones y de la vivienda.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Bonanzas de flujos de capital: una mirada que abarca el pasado y el presente," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 27(59), pages 188-250, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:006899
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.5906
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.5906
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/Espe.5906?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Fiscal and monetary policy in a commodity‐based economy1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 679-713, October.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Gustavo Cano, 2010. "Regla fiscal y estabilidad macroeconómica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 607, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
    2. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
    4. Arora, Vipin & Tyers, Rod, 2012. "Asset arbitrage and the price of oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 142-150.
    5. Grossmann, Axel & Kim, Jintae, 2022. "The impact of U.S. dollar movements and U.S. dollar states on non-perishable commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Joseph P Byrne & Ryuta Sakemoto & Bing Xu, 2020. "Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals [Oil price shocks and the stock market: evidence from Japan]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 499-528.
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    8. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    9. Sima Siami‐Namini & Darren Hudson & Adao Alexandre Trindade & Conrad Lyford, 2019. "Commodity price volatility and U.S. monetary policy: Commodity price overshooting revisited," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 200-218, April.
    10. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Influential factors in crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 77-88.
    11. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    12. Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2016. "The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 90-114, January.
    13. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Mrs. Marina V Rousset, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Asset Price Risk," IMF Working Papers 2013/190, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Márquez-de-la-Cruz, Elena & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2022. "Non-linear cointegration between oil and stock prices: The role of interest rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Arnaut, Javier L., 2022. "The importance of uranium prices and structural shocks: Some implications for Greenland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Njegovan Nikola & Simin Mirela Tomaš, 2020. "Inflation and Prices of Agricultural Products," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(2), pages 203-217, June.
    17. Boehm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan & Giessler, Stefan, 2021. "What drives the commodity-sovereign risk dependence in emerging market economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Tiziano Distefano & Guido Chiarotti & Francesco Laio & Luca Ridolfi, 2018. "Spatial distribution of the international food prices: unexpected randomness and heterogeneity," SEEDS Working Papers 0118, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2018.
    19. Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    20. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    finanzas internacionales; ajuste encuenta corriente; movimientos de capital de cortoplazo; problemas de endeudamiento internacionales.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000107:006899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Espe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.