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El Costo De Los Ciclos Económicos En Colombia: Una Nueva Estimación

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  • MAURICIO A. HERNÁNDEZ M.

    ()

  • MUNIR A. JALIL B.

    ()

  • CARLOS ESTEBAN POSADA P.

    ()

Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables va-riaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de produc-ción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital, que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fl uctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo esta-bilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incremen-tado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fl uctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo entre 1,53% y 1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad in-tertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la com-pensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos esce-narios (fl uctuante y estable) equivaldría, en prome-dio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:004637

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Keywords: fluctuaciones; costo de los ciclos; bienestar.;

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References

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  1. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003520, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Mauricio Avella Gómez & Leopoldo Fergusson T., 2004. "El ciclo económico - Enfoques e ilustraciones - Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002465, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Luis H Gutiérrez & Carlos Pombo, 2005. "Corporate Valuation and Governance: Evidence from Colombia," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002203, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  6. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 1992. "Una nota sobre el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  7. Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 9970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  9. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002274, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Franz Hamann, . "Sovereign Risk and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 226, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, 06.
  12. Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, . "Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX," Borradores de Economia 126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Birchenall Jiménez Javier Arturo, 1997. "Inversión, q de Tobin, e incertidumbre en la industria colombiana," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  14. Franz A. Hamman & Alvaro Riascos, . "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta- Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 089, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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Cited by:
  1. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008297, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  2. Christian Volpe Martincus & Sandra Milena Gómez, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications 9292, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, . "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," Borradores de Economia 442, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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