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Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia

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  • Andrés Gonzalez

    ()

  • Franz Hamann

    ()

Abstract

This paper measures inflation persistence in Colombia for the period1990-2010 and estimates the implied speed at which agents learn about the central bank´s inflation target. We estimate Erceg and Levin´s (2003) imperfect credibility model using Bayesian techniques and compare the posterior odds of this model against a conventional Neokeynesian model with ad-hoc price indexation. The odds are strongly in favor of the imperfect credibility model, suggesting that lack of credibility on the inflation target is an important source of inflation persistence. We use the model to compute the sacrifice ratio associated to 100 basis points inflation target shocks and find that it is (0.83%) in line with previous estimates for Colombia. We also find that the speed at which agents learn in the model has increased, albeit marginally, since the central bank implemented its inflation targeting strategy. Although during this period macroeconomic volatility has fallen, inflation persistence has remained roughly constant suggesting that, so far, the impact of those credibility gains on inflation persistence has been modest.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its journal REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008920

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Keywords: Credibility; inflation; persistence; disinflation costs; Colombia.;

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  1. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Juan Carlos Parra, 2009. "La formación de precios en las empresas colombianas: evidencia a partir de una encuesta directa," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005735, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  8. Raquel Bernal, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules In Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003251, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  9. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2004. "Inflation Persistence: Facts or Artefacts?," Working Papers w200408, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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  12. José Daniel REYES PEÑA, 2003. "The cost of disinflation in Colombia: -A sacrifice Ratio Approach-," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003579, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
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  16. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
  17. Andrés González G. & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008737, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  18. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hernando Vargas, 2008. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Colombia: major changes and current features," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 183-211 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Lutte contre l’Inflation et Croissance Economique en Afrique: la Nécessité d’une Alternative
    [Fighting against Inflation and economic growth in Africa: A necessity of alternative]
    ," MPRA Paper 49416, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Apr 2013.
  3. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Fiscal Policy Changes in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009314, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Ludek Niedermayer, 2008. "Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 213-219 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Andrés González G. & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008737, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Eliana González & José Vicente Romero & José Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2010. "Assessing inflationary pressures in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 129-171 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Hernando Vargas H., 2007. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003630, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Stabilité des Prix et Croissance Economique en Zone CEMAC: Une Approche en Données de Panel
    [Price Stability Objectives and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Econometrics Empirical Invest
    ," MPRA Paper 49412, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2013.
  9. Hernando Vargas, . "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features," Borradores de Economia 431, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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