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Forecasting business-cycle turning points: the three-times-in-succession rule vs. Markov switching

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Klaus Abberger

Abstract

Empirically oriented business-cycle experts like to use the three-times-in-succession rule for an early identification of cyclical turning points. This rule enables them to transform the direction of a business-cycle indicator into a turning point signal. However, Markov switching models can also provide important information for the prediction of turning points. This article compares the strengths of both approaches for the forecasting of turning points in industrial activity in Germany, using the Ifo Business Climate in manufacturing as an indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger, 2014. "Forecasting business-cycle turning points: the three-times-in-succession rule vs. Markov switching," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(16), pages 21-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:16:p:21-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
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    3. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, March.
    4. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Beatrice N. Vaccara & Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 0244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Heilemann & Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker, 2016. "Could The Start Of The German Recession 2008-2009 Have Been Foreseen? Evidence From Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2016-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Katrin Demmelhuber & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2022. "Beyond the Business Climate: Regular and Supplementary Questions in the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 9666, CESifo.
    3. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger, 2015. "ifo Konjunkturampel Revisited," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(05), pages 27-32, March.
    5. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "The Relationship between Business Expectations and Current Business Situation in the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(05), pages 42-45, March.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.

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