Does housing really lead the business cycle?
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third,there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1024.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Housing; business cycles; filtering;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
- R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2010-07-31 (Business Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-07-31 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2010-07-31 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pau Rabanal & Oriol Aspachs-Bracons, 2009.
"The Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain,"
IMF Working Papers
09/203, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003.
"Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luis J. Álvarez & Guido Bulligan & Alberto Cabrero & Laurent Ferrara & Harald Stahl, 2010.
"Housing Cycles In The Major Euro Area Countries,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Occasional Papers
1001, Banco de Espa�a.
- Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, May.
- Ferrara, L. & Vigna, O., 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.
- Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012.
"The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
- Dufrénot, G. & Malik, S., 2010. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Working papers 309, Banque de France.
- Álvarez, L-J. & Bulligan, G. & Cabrero, A. & Ferrara, L. & Stahl, H., 2009.
"Housing cycles in the major euro area countries,"
269, Banque de France.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mar�a Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de Espa�a).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.