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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2004: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen und diskutiert die Gründe für aufgetretene Differenzen zwischen Prognose und Wirklichkeit. Im Jahr 2004 ist die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vom ifo Institut von der Grundtendenz her zutreffend prognostiziert worden. Wie erwartet ist es zu einem leichten Aufschwung gekommen, der allerdings nicht stark genug war, die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt auch nur ansatzweise zu verbessern.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2005/ifosd_2005_3_5.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 03 (02)
Pages: 26-30

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:03:p:26-30

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Related research

Keywords: Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Entwicklung; Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
  2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
  3. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Oscar-Erich Kuntze & Andrea Gebauer & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Anita Kaltschütz & Erich Langmantel & Monika Ruschinski & Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmer, 2004. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2005: Abgehängt von der Weltkonjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(24), pages 15-53, December.
  4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.

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