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Economic activity 2004: Forecasting and reality

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

For years the Ifo Institute has examined the accuracy of its own business cycle forecasts and discussed the reasons for the differences between forecasts and reality. In 2004 the business trend in Germany predicted by the Ifo Institute was basically accurate. As we expected, a slight upswing occurred that was not strong enough, however, to correct the situation on the labour market.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Economic activity 2004: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:03:p:26-30
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2005_3_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methods of business cycle forecasting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Business forecasts and forecasting risks," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    3. Schmahl, Hans-Jürgen, 1987. "Weshalb unterschiedliche Prognosen?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 67(5), pages 214-215.
    4. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Oscar-Erich Kuntze & Andrea Gebauer & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Anita Dehne & Erich Langmantel & Monika Ruschinski & Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2004. "Ifo Economic Forecast for 2005: Decoupled from the world economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(24), pages 15-53, December.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    2. Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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