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Does Permanent Income Determine the Vote?

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Author Info
Jo Thori Lind (University of Oslo)

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Abstract

The relationship between income and voting is usually studied using current income. Instead, I estimate how permanent income affects voting and to what extent voters are forward looking. A proxy for permanent income is constructed from stated expectations about one's future economic situation. Using panel data from the Norwegian Election Study I estimate the effect of stated expectations on realized future income to compute the effect of expectations. This is then linked to voting behaviour. Contrasting permanent and transitory income, the former has a large impact and the latter has little explanatory power on voting. This supports the hypothesis of forward looking voting. A high expected permanent income increase the propensity to vote Conservative.

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File URL: http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1527&context=bejm
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:7:y:2007:i:1:n:19

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Related research
Keywords: voting; permanent income; redistribution;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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