Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations
AbstractInflation expectations play an important role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. There is a risk that the periods of above-target CPI inflation in the past three years might cause inflation expectations to drift upwards. That might make inflation itself more persistent, via changes in price and wage-setting behaviour. And so, other things being equal, returning inflation to target would require tighter monetary policy. This article provides a framework that can be used to monitor the risk to inflation from inflation expectations. While recent developments provide few signs that the risk is materialising, the imperfect nature of data mean that the risk can be assessed only imperfectly.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Bank of England in its journal Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 51 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008.
"Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, 07.
- Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001.
"Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
- Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2006.
"The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model,"
Bank of England working papers
303, Bank of England.
- Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006.
"Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden,"
Working Paper Series
2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Levin, Andrew & Swanson, Eric T, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer, 2010. "Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
- Felix Ritchie, 2008. "Secure access to confidential microdata: four years of the Virtual Microdata Laboratory," Economic and Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(5), pages 29-34, May.
- Corder, Matthew & Eckloff, Daniel, 2011. "International evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation episodes," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 111-115.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Group).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.