International evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation episodes
AbstractThe high level of UK inflation in recent years raises the possibility that inflation expectations may drift upwards, making the period of above-target inflation last for longer. This article presents some evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation (SOTI) episodes in other inflation-targeting countries and outlines some of the key trends. The evidence suggests that short and medium-term inflation expectations have tended to drift in the direction of the deviation of inflation from target. But generally the movements in inflation expectations were more gradual than movements in inflation itself and expectations returned to their previous level once inflation returned to target.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Bank of England in its journal Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 51 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Macallan, Clare & Taylor, Tim & O'Grady, Tom, 2011. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 100-110.
- José Antonio Murillo Garza & Paula Sánchez Romeu, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
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