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Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • Nihal Bayraktar
  • Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
  • Karim El Aynaoui

Abstract

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross-country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current 'Poverty Reduction' Strategy Papers. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 29 (2006)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1519-1547

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:29:y:2006:i:11:p:1519-1547

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References

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  1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
  2. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Mind your P's and Q's : the cost of public investment is not the value of public capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1660, The World Bank.
  3. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," NBER Working Papers 11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Satya R. Chakravarty, 2003. "A Generalized Human Development Index," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 99-114, February.
  5. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina & Lutz, Stefan H., 2004. "The contribution of income, social capital, and institutions to human well-being in Africa," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  6. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
  7. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Pro-poor growth : A primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank.
  9. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik M., 2005. "Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3661, The World Bank.
  10. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2005. "A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3506, The World Bank.
  11. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Stefano Paternostro, 2003. "Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 17(3), pages 317-347, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, 2009. "Linking Fiscal Policy and Growth in PER Reports : An Operational Framework for Low-Income Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11125, The World Bank.
  2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, 2006. "Public infrastructure and growth : new channels and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4064, The World Bank.
  3. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2008. "Foreign aid, growth and poverty: A policy framework for Niger," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 523-539.
  4. Emilio Sacerdoti & Gonzalo Salinas & Abdikarim Farah, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-Up Aid," IMF Working Papers 09/36, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel, 2006. "Linking public investment programs and SPAHD macro models : methodology and application to aid requirements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3944, The World Bank.
  6. Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2011. "Absorptive Capacity: More Than the Volume of Aid, its Modalities Matter," Working Papers halshs-00557130, HAL.
  7. Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2010. "Big Push versus Absorptive Capacity: How to Reconcile the Two Approaches," Working Papers id:3000, eSocialSciences.
  8. Bourguignon, Francois & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Lofgren, Hans, 2008. "Aid, service delivery, and the millennium development goals in an economy-wide framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4683, The World Bank.
  9. Joannes Mongardini & Issouf Samaké, 2009. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid," IMF Working Papers 09/115, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Yamin, Mo & Sinkovics, Rudolf R., 2009. "Infrastructure or foreign direct investment?: An examination of the implications of MNE strategy for economic development," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 144-157, April.
  11. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Roads out of poverty? assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3490, The World Bank.
  12. Lofgren, Hans & Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2013. "MAMS – A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  13. World Bank, 2007. "Niger - Accelerating Growth and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : Diagnosis and the Policy Agenda," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7658, The World Bank.

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