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Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

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Author Info
Pierre-Richard Agénor
Nihal Bayraktar
Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
Karim El Aynaoui

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Abstract

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross-country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current 'Poverty Reduction' Strategy Papers. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 29 (2006)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1519-1547
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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:29:y:2006:i:11:p:1519-1547

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Mind your P's and Q's : the cost of public investment is not the value of public capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1660, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Pro-poor growth : A primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2005. "A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3506, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Roads out of poverty? assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3490, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Satya R. Chakravarty, 2003. "A Generalized Human Development Index," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 99-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Stefano Paternostro, 2003. "Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 317-347, December.
  9. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik M., 2005. "Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3661, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane, 2007. "Big Push versus Absorptive Capacity: How to Reconcile the Two Approaches," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bourguignon, Francois & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Lofgren, Hans, 2008. "Aid, service delivery, and the millennium development goals in an economy-wide framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4683, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel, 2006. "Linking public investment programs and SPAHD macro models : methodology and application to aid requirements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3944, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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