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Mortgage Default Risks and the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake

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  • Dan R. Anderson
  • Maurice Weinrobe

Abstract

The paper is based on a study of mortgage default risks associated with natural disasters. These risks are faced by holders of mortgages when forced by default to acquire damaged properties. A sample of residential mortgage properties damaged in the 1971 San Fernando, California earthquake is studied. Some of the mortgagors defaulted while others did not. The paper identifies and analyzes those variables associated with default using discriminant and probit regression analysis. The study concentrates on earthquake exposures in California, but has implications for all major disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan R. Anderson & Maurice Weinrobe, 1986. "Mortgage Default Risks and the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 110-135, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:14:y:1986:i:1:p:110-135
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John P. Herzog & James S. Earley, 1970. "Home Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number herz70-1, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas M. Springer & Neil G. Waller, 1993. "Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 27-46, March.
    2. Noy, Ilan & Kusuma, Aditya & Nguyen, Cuong, 2017. "Insuring disasters: A survey of the economics of insurance programs for earthquakes and droughts," Working Paper Series 20250, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Morse, Adair, 2011. "Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 28-44, October.
    4. Xu, Minhong & Xu, Yilan, 2023. "Do non-damaging earthquakes shake mortgage lenders' risk perception?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Manoj Athavale & Stephen M. Avila, 2011. "An Analysis of the Demand for Earthquake Insurance," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 233-246, September.
    6. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What's at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.
    7. Christian L. Redfearn, 2004. "Land Markets & Terrorism: Uncovering Perceptions of Risk by Examining Land Price Changes Following 9/11," Working Paper 8591, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    8. Callum Logan, 2013. "Valuing the Risk of Imperfect Information: Christchurch Earthquake," ERES eres2013_32, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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