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Handing Over the Keys: A Perspective on Mortgage Default Research

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  • Kerry D. Vandell

Abstract

This paper is the text of the 1992 Presidential Address for the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. A comparative evaluation of mortgage default research finds that both the residential and commercial markets evolved from informal underwriting rules, to formalized (though unvalidated) ratios and rules of thumb, to early risk ratings based upon empirical evidence, to gener-alizable econometric models of default, to option-based pricing models. The commercial market lagged the residential market by about 10 to 20 years at first but is now only about five years behind. The survey finds that research and progress in understanding mortgage credit risk has been precipitated by a public policy need or mandate, data availability, and adequate technology. The absence of any one of these factors has hindered progress in the past. Finally, six emerging issues in default research are identified and discussed: (1) the degree of "ruth-lessness" with which default is exercised, (2) loan recourse, (3) the magnitude and timing of revenues and losses associated with default, (4) loan modification, (5) default in a portfolio context, and (6) leasehold default. Progress in these areas will enhance the efficiency of both the residential and commercial markets. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 211-246

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:21:y:1993:i:3:p:211-246

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Cited by:
  1. Tyler Yang & Che-Chun Lin & Man Cho, 2011. "Collateral Risk in Residential Mortgage Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 115-142, February.
  2. Amir E. Khandani & Andrew W. Lo & Robert C. Merton, 2009. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect," Harvard Business School Working Papers 10-023, Harvard Business School, revised Jul 2010.
  3. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.
  4. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2009. "Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages," CEPR Discussion Papers 7352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William & Satchell, Stephen, 1997. "Time to default in the UK mortgage market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 485-499, October.
  6. David Feldman & Shulamith Gross, 2005. "Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 369-396, June.
  7. Marvin L. Wolverton & Paul Gallimore, 1999. "Client Feedback and the Role of the Appraiser," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 415-432.
  8. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The value of recourse and cross-default clauses in commercial mortgage contracting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 511-536, April.
  9. Wayne Passmore & Roger Sparks, 1997. "The effect of automated underwriting on the profitability of mortgage securitization," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Lin, Che-Chun & Prather, Larry J. & Chu, Ting-Heng & Tsay, Jing-Tang, 2013. "Differential default risk among traditional and non-traditional mortgage products and capital adequacy standards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-122.
  11. Michael LaCour-Little, 2007. "Economic Factors Affecting Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Reporting," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(4), pages 479-510.
  12. Eddie Lam, 2002. "A Risk Management Model for MBS Issuers," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 169-195.
  13. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Introduction and overview," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 227-234, June.

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