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Managerial Optimism in a Competitive Market

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  • Baojun Jiang
  • Chang Liu

Abstract

Research has shown that many managers and entrepreneurs tend to be optimistic and are inclined to believe that negative shocks happen to them less frequently than to others. However, there is also evidence suggesting that such optimism is often inaccurate in reality and managerial optimism can lead to the failure of a company. We develop a game‐theoretic model to investigate the impact of managerial optimism on firms’ performance in a competitive market. Our analysis shows that a manager's optimism about demand can increase the firm's profit. Moreover, only one firm having managerial optimism can be win–win for both firms in a duopoly, because it can increase the level of product quality differentiation between the firms, alleviating price competition. However, if both firms have optimistic managers, the benefit of increased differentiation disappears, and firms are weakly worse off, compared with the case of both firms having realistic managers. Our research suggests that a firm should hire a realistic manager when managerial optimism is already pervasive in a competitive market.

Suggested Citation

  • Baojun Jiang & Chang Liu, 2019. "Managerial Optimism in a Competitive Market," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 833-846, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popmgt:v:28:y:2019:i:4:p:833-846
    DOI: 10.1111/poms.12952
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jin, Minyue & Zhang, Xueqing & Xiong, Yu & Zhou, Yu, 2021. "Implications of green optimism upon sustainable supply chain management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 131-139.
    4. Zhang, Ting & Su, Yina & Wang, Ningning, 2023. "Product quality improvement under retailer-direct financing: Effects of attitudes toward extreme weather," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    5. Suh, Daniel Y. & Ryerson, Megan S., 2019. "Forecast to grow: Aviation demand forecasting in an era of demand uncertainty and optimism bias," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 400-416.
    6. Wen Diao & Mushegh Harutyunyan & Baojun Jiang, 2023. "Consumer Fairness Concerns and Dynamic Pricing in a Channel," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(3), pages 569-588, May.
    7. Rajesh Bagchi & Sung H. Ham & Chuan He, 2020. "Strategic Implications of Confirmation Bias‐Inducing Advertising," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(6), pages 1573-1596, June.
    8. Charles H. Fine & Loredana Padurean & Sergey Naumov, 2022. "Operations for entrepreneurs: Can Operations Management make a difference in entrepreneurial theory and practice?," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(12), pages 4599-4615, December.
    9. Lei Fang & Sai Zhao, 2022. "The manufacturing–marketing conflict under vertical product differentiation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 4028-4040, December.

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