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International Migration: Trends, Determinants, and Policy Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Hein de Haas
  • Mathias Czaika
  • Marie‐Laurence Flahaux
  • Edo Mahendra
  • Katharina Natter
  • Simona Vezzoli
  • María Villares‐Varela

Abstract

This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, “substitution effects” can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hein de Haas & Mathias Czaika & Marie‐Laurence Flahaux & Edo Mahendra & Katharina Natter & Simona Vezzoli & María Villares‐Varela, 2019. "International Migration: Trends, Determinants, and Policy Effects," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 885-922, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:45:y:2019:i:4:p:885-922
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12291
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    2. Michael A. Clemens & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox," Working Papers 539, Center for Global Development.
    3. Clemens, Michael A., 2020. "The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 13614, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    5. Ondřej Schneider, 2022. "Labour Migration In The European Union: The Case Of Central And Eastern Europe," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(233), pages 7-38, April – J.
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    7. Luis E C Rocha & Petter Holme & Claudio D G Linhares, 2022. "The global migration network of sex-workers," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 969-985, May.
    8. Sandra Pellet & Marine de Talancé, 2023. "Is There a Gender Gap in Health among Migrants in Russia?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(12), pages 1927-1948, December.
    9. Aida Hajro & Chris Brewster & Washika Haak-Saheem & Michael J. Morley, 2023. "Global migration: Implications for international business scholarship," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(6), pages 1134-1150, August.
    10. Sylvester Mpandeli & Luxon Nhamo & Sithabile Hlahla & Dhesigen Naidoo & Stanley Liphadzi & Albert Thembinkosi Modi & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2020. "Migration under Climate Change in Southern Africa: A Nexus Planning Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-14, June.
    11. Robert Grosse & Jonas Gamso & Roy C. Nelson, 2021. "China’s Rise, World Order, and the Implications for International Business," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-26, March.
    12. Guillaume Marois & Michaela Potancokova & Miguel Gonzalez-Leonardo, 2023. "Demographic and labor force impacts of future immigration flows into Europe: does an immigrant’s region of origin matter?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Lingli Xu & Liang Wang & Christian Nygaard, 2022. "Locational decisions and subjective well-being: an empirical study of Chinese urban migrants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(27), pages 3180-3195, June.
    14. Ar. Rohman T. Hidayat & Kenichiro Onitsuka & Corinthias P. M. Sianipar & Satoshi Hoshino, 2022. "Distance-Dependent Migration Intention of Villagers: Comparative Study of Peri-Urban and Remote Villages in Indonesia," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, April.
    15. Galina Ševčenko-Kozlovska & Kristina Čižiūnienė, 2022. "A Study of the Relationship between Lithuanian International Migration Flows and Transport Sector Performance Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Bucevska Vesna, 2022. "Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South-East European Countries," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 79-94, June.
    17. Eva Ivanová & Eva Grmanová, 2021. "The Sustainability of EU Labor Immigration in Terms of Poverty Inequalities and Employment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Mihaela MATEI & Monica ROMAN & Alexandru FLOREA & Adina IORGANDA, 2020. "International migration policies in two post-communist countries: comparative evidence from Romania and Poland," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 427-448, December.
    19. Hélène Benveniste & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Matthew Gidden & Raya Muttarak, 2021. "Tracing international migration in projections of income and inequality across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-22, June.
    20. Petra W. Jong & Kim Caarls & Helga A. G. Valk, 2022. "The Welfare State as Safety Net in Migration Preferences: Empirical Evidence from an Experiment Among Dutch Master Students," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(2), pages 671-694, April.
    21. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Adriana Cardozo & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 210-223.
    22. Langthaler, Margarita & Gündüz, Dilara, 2020. "Preventing migration with vocational education? Understanding the migration - vocational education nexus," Briefing Papers 26, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).

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