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Population-Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment

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  • Gary L. Hunt

Abstract

Population and employment in the 50 United States are found to be non-stationary and cointegrated. Vector error correction (VEC) models exhibit dynamics with adjustment to shocks essentially completed in "30-35 years". This contrasts with adjustment periods between "one and two centuries" for non-stationary models specified in levels. These dynamic adjustment patterns support the hypothesis that relatively long adjustment periods and slow dynamics are probably the spurious results of using non-stationary levels of population and employment outside of a VEC model framework. Recommendations for modeling the population-employment relationship are offered based on the findings reported. Copyright Blackwell Publishers, 2006

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 46 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 205-244

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:46:y:2006:i:2:p:205-244

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Cited by:
  1. Deller, Steven C. & Lledo, Victor, 2007. "Amenities and Rural Appalachia Economic Growth," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  2. Stilianos Alexiadis & Konstantinos Eleftheriou & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Do Income Disparities dissipate across the US States? Experimenting with a Vector Error Correction Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-165/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2012. "When spatial equilibrium fails: is place-based policy second best?," MPRA Paper 40270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Fabian Waltert & Felix Schlaepfer, 2007. "The role of landscape amenities in regional development: a survey of migration, regional economic and hedonic pricing studies," SOI - Working Papers 0710, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.

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