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Corporate Failure Prediction Modeling: Distorted by Business Groups' Internal Capital Markets?

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  • Nico Dewaelheyns
  • Cynthia Van Hulle

Abstract

Most models in the bankruptcy prediction literature implicitly assume companies are stand‐alone entities. However, in view of the importance of business groups in Continental Europe, ignoring group ties may have a negative impact on predictive reliability. We find that models encompassing both bankruptcy variables defined at subsidiary level and at group level have a substantially better fit and classification performance. Furthermore we find that the group's support causes improved survival chances for subsidiaries, especially when these subsidiaries belong to the group's core business. Overall our results are consistent with existing theoretical and empirical findings from the internal capital markets literature.

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  • Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Van Hulle, 2006. "Corporate Failure Prediction Modeling: Distorted by Business Groups' Internal Capital Markets?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 909-931, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:33:y:2006:i:5-6:p:909-931
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2006.00009.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Leyman, Bart & Schoors, Koen J.L. & Coussement, Peter, 2011. "Does court-supervised reorganization work? Evidence from post-confirmation firm failure," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 149-168, September.
    2. Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Van Hulle, 2010. "Internal Capital Markets and Capital Structure: Bank Versus Internal Debt," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(3), pages 345-373, June.
    3. Горцева Н. В., 2014. "Особенности Анализа И Планирования Финансового Состояния Предприятий, Входящих В Группы Компаний," Проблемы современной экономики, CyberLeninka;Общество с ограниченной ответственностью «Научно-производственная компания «РОСТ», issue 3 (51), pages 197-199.
    4. Lara Abdel Fattah & Sylvain Barthélémy & Nadine Levratto & Benjamin Trempont, 2016. "Post-reorganization survival: a semi-parametric and non-parametric analysis of firm characteristics," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-22, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Balcaen,S. & Buyze, J. & Ooghe,H., 2009. "Financial distress and firm exit: determinants of involuntary exits, voluntary liquidations and restructuring exits," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2009-21, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
    6. An Buysschaert & Marc Deloof & Marc Jegers & An Rommens, 2008. "Is Group Affiliation Profitable in Developed Countries? Belgian Evidence," Corporate Governance: An International Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 504-518, November.
    7. Mauricio Jara‐Bertín & Cristian Pinto‐Gutiérrez & Carlos Pombo, 2021. "The effect of intra‐group loans on the cash flow sensitivity of cash: Evidence from Chile," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 374-403, June.
    8. Sofie Balcaen & Sophie Manigart & Jozefien Buyze & Hubert Ooghe, 2012. "Firm exit after distress: differentiating between bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 949-975, November.
    9. B. Leyman & K. Schoors & P. Coussement, 2008. "The Role of Firm Viability, Creditor Behavior and Judicial Discretion in the Failure of Distressed Firms under Courtsupervised Restructuring: Evidence from Belgium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/509, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Raffaele Santioni & Ilaria Supino, 2018. "Internal capital markets in Italian business groups: evidence from the financial crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 421, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Dewaelheyns, Nico & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 2009. "Filtering speed in a Continental European reorganization procedure," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 375-387, December.
    12. Rumeng Cui & Zhong Ma & Longfeng Wang, 2022. "Allocation of Decision Rights and CSR Disclosure: Evidence from Listed Business Groups in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Van Hulle & Yannick Van Landuyt & Mathias Verreydt, 2021. "Labor Contracts, Wages and SME Failure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-15, July.
    14. An Rommens & Ludo Cuyvers & Marc Deloof, 2012. "Dividend Policies of Privately Held Companies: Stand†Alone and Group Companies in Belgium," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 816-835, November.
    15. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    16. Rosy Locorotondo & Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Hulle, 2015. "Affiliates’ Bank Debt Policy: Does Parent Firm Nationality Matter?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5-6), pages 747-776, June.
    17. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
    18. Peng XU, 2019. "Exit of Small Businesses: Differentiating between Insolvency, Voluntary Closures and M&A," Discussion papers 19051, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Panagiotis Avramidis & Ioannis Asimakopoulos & Dimitris Malliaropulos & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2017. "Group affiliation in periods of credit contraction and bank’s reaction: evidence from the Greek crisis," Working Papers 237, Bank of Greece.
    20. Katrien Kestens & Philippe Van Cauwenberge & Johan Christiaens, 2012. "The Effect of the Notional Interest Deduction on the Capital Structure of Belgian SMEs," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 30(2), pages 228-247, April.
    21. Lara Abdel Fattah & Sylvain Barthelemy & Nadine Levratto & Benjamin Trempont, 2016. "Post-reorganization survival: a semi-parametric and non-parametric analysis of firm characteristics," Working Papers hal-04141587, HAL.
    22. Agata Lozinskaia & Andreas Merikas & Anna Merika & Henry Penikas, 2017. "Determinants of the probability of default: the case of the internationally listed shipping corporations," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 837-858, October.
    23. Locorotondo, Rosy & Dewaelheyns, Nico & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 2014. "Cash holdings and business group membership," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 316-323.
    24. Rose Kenney & Gianni La Cava & David Rodgers, 2016. "Why Do Companies Fail?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    25. Viswanathan Nagarajan & Pitabas Mohanty & Apalak Khatua, 2023. "Financing effects of corporate diversification: A review," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(7), pages 2555-2585, October.

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