Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Corporate Distress Prediction Models Using Governance and Financial Variables: Evidence from Thai Listed Firms during the East Asian Economic Crisis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Piruna Polsiri

    (Department of Finance, Dhurakij Pundit University, Thailand)

  • Kingkarn Sookhanaphibarn

    ()
    (Department of Photographic Science & Printing Technology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Predicting corporate distress can have a significant impact on the economy because it serves as an efficient early warning signal. This study develops distress prediction models incorporating both governance and financial variables and examines the impact of major corporate governance attributes, i.e., ownership and board structures, on the likelihood of distress. The two widely documented methods, i.e., logit and neural network approaches are used. For an emerging market economy where ownership concentration is common, we show that not only financial factors but also corporate governance factors help determine the likelihood that a company will be in distress. Our prediction models perform relatively well. Specifically, in our logit models that incorporate governance and financial variables, more than 85% of non-financial listed firms are correctly classified in our models. When we consider the Type I error, on average the models have the Type I error of about 9%. Likewise, the neural network prediction models appear to have good results. Specifically, the average accuracy of the neural network prediction models ranges from approximately 84% to 87% with the average Type I error raging from about 10% to 16%. Such evidence indicates that the models serve as sound early warning signals and could thus be useful tools adding to supervisory resources. We also find that the presence of controlling shareholders and the board involvement by controlling shareholders reduce the probability of corporate financial distress. This evidence supports the monitoring/alignment hypothesis. Finally, our results suggest evidence of the benefits of business group affiliation in reducing the distress likelihood of member firms during the East Asian financial crisis.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.jem.org.tw/content/pdf/Vol.5No.2/07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.jem.org.tw/content/abstract/Vol.5No.2/English/07.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan in its journal Journal of Economics and Management.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July)
    Pages: 273-304

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:jec:journl:v:5:y:2009:i:2:p:273-304

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 100 Wenhwa Road, Seatwen, Taichung
    Web page: http://www.jem.org.tw/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: corporate distress; prediction model; corporate governance; neural networks; East Asian economic crisis;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-29, May.
    2. Claessens, Stijn & Fan, Joseph P.H. & Lang, Larry H.P., 2006. "The benefits and costs of group affiliation: Evidence from East Asia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Lamont, Owen, 1997. " Cash Flow and Investment: Evidence from Internal Capital Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 83-109, March.
    4. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1998. "Law and Finance," Scholarly Articles 3451310, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Admati, Anat R & Pfleiderer, Paul & Zechner, Josef, 1994. "Large Shareholder Activism, Risk Sharing, and Financial Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1097-1130, December.
    6. Hyun-Han Shin & René M. Stulz, 1998. "Are Internal Capital Markets Efficient?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 531-552, May.
    7. Cronqvist, Henrik & Nilsson, Mattias, 2003. "Agency Costs of Controlling Minority Shareholders," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 695-719, December.
    8. Rosenstein, Stuart & Wyatt, Jeffrey G., 1990. "Outside directors, board independence, and shareholder wealth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 175-191, August.
    9. Volpin, Paolo F., 2002. "Governance with poor investor protection: evidence from top executive turnover in Italy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 61-90, April.
    10. David S. Scharfstein, 1998. "The Dark Side of Internal Capital Markets II: Evidence from Diversified Conglomerates," NBER Working Papers 6352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Eric Friedman & Simon Johnson & Peter Boone & Alasdair Breach, 1999. "Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 199920, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    12. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1996. "A Survey of Corporate Governance," NBER Working Papers 5554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mitton, Todd, 2002. "A cross-firm analysis of the impact of corporate governance on the East Asian financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 215-241, May.
    14. Borokhovich, Kenneth A. & Parrino, Robert & Trapani, Teresa, 1996. "Outside Directors and CEO Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(03), pages 337-355, September.
    15. Bongini, Paola & Claessens, Stijn & Ferri, Giovanni, 2000. "The political economy of distress in East Asian financial institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2265, The World Bank.
    16. Leonardo Becchetti & Jaime Humberto Sierra Gonzalez 2, 2003. "Bankruptcy Risk and Productive Efficiency in Manufacturing Firms," CEIS Research Paper 30, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    17. Bongini, Paola & Ferri, Giovanni & Tae Soo Kang, 2000. "Financial intermediary distress in the Republic of Korea - Small is beautiful?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2332, The World Bank.
    18. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 1998. "Corporate Ownership Around the World," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1840, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    19. Claessens, Stijn & Djankov, Simeon & Klapper, Leora, 2003. "Resolution of corporate distress in East Asia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 199-216, February.
    20. Joh, Sung Wook, 2003. "Corporate governance and firm profitability: evidence from Korea before the economic crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 287-322, May.
    21. Klein, April, 1998. "Firm Performance and Board Committee Structure," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 275-303, April.
    22. Stijn Claessens & Joseph P. H. Fan, 2002. "Corporate Governance in Asia: A Survey," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 71-103.
    23. Lucian Arye Bebchuk, 1999. "A Rent-Protection Theory of Corporate Ownership and Control," NBER Working Papers 7203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Zhang, Guoqiang & Y. Hu, Michael & Eddy Patuwo, B. & C. Indro, Daniel, 1999. "Artificial neural networks in bankruptcy prediction: General framework and cross-validation analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 16-32, July.
    25. Stijn Claessens & Simeon Djankov & Joseph P. H. Fan & Larry H. P. Lang, 2002. "Disentangling the Incentive and Entrenchment Effects of Large Shareholdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2741-2771, December.
    26. Wiwattanakantang, Yupana, 2001. "Controlling Shareholders and Corporate Value: Evidence from Thailand," CEI Working Paper Series 2001-4, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    27. Armando Gomes, 2000. "Going Public without Governance: Managerial Reputation Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 615-646, 04.
    28. Karl V. Lins & Henri Servaes, 2002. "Is Corporate Diversification Beneficial in Emerging Market?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
    29. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Propping and tunneling," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 732-750, December.
    30. Baysinger, Barry D & Butler, Henry N, 1985. "Corporate Governance and the Board of Directors: Performance Effects of Changes in Board Composition," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 101-24, Spring.
    31. Raghuram Rajan & Henri Servaes & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "The Cost of Diversity: The Diversification Discount and Inefficient Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 35-80, 02.
    32. Stulz, ReneM., 1990. "Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-27, July.
    33. Tarun Khanna & Krishna Palepu, 2000. "Is Group Affiliation Profitable in Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Diversified Indian Business Groups," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 867-891, 04.
    34. Marco Pagano & Ailsa Röell, 1998. "The Choice Of Stock Ownership Structure: Agency Costs, Monitoring, And The Decision To Go Public," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 187-225, February.
    35. Khanthavit, Anya & Polsiri, Piruna & Wiwattanakantang, Yupana, 2003. "Did Families Lose or Gain Control after the East Asian Financial Crisis?," CEI Working Paper Series 2003-1, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    36. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1986. "Large Shareholders and Corporate Control," Scholarly Articles 3606237, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    37. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda, 2000. "Controlling stockholders and the disciplinary role of corporate payout policy: a study of the Times Mirror Company," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 153-207, May.
    38. Donald C. Hambrick & Richard A. D'Aveni, 1992. "Top Team Deterioration as Part of the Downward Spiral of Large Corporate Bankruptcies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1445-1466, October.
    39. Baek, Jae-Seung & Kang, Jun-Koo & Suh Park, Kyung, 2004. "Corporate governance and firm value: evidence from the Korean financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 265-313, February.
    40. Pamela K. Coats & L. Franklin Fant, 1993. "Recognizing Financial Distress Patterns Using a Neural Network Tool," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    41. Michael L. Lemmon & Karl V. Lins, 2003. "Ownership Structure, Corporate Governance, and Firm Value: Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1445-1468, 08.
    42. Mehran, Hamid, 1995. "Executive compensation structure, ownership, and firm performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-184, June.
    43. Burkart, Mike & Gromb, Denis & Panunzi, Fausto, 1997. "Large Shareholders, Monitoring, and the Value of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(3), pages 693-728, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jec:journl:v:5:y:2009:i:2:p:273-304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yi-Ju Su).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.