Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis
AbstractThis paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Towards that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for this hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. Second, we find no evidence that the trend decline in the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap observed in many countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the responsiveness of inflation to import prices for most countries.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.
Volume (Year): 13 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (Winter)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1367-0271
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- Raphael A Auer & Philip Sauré, 2013. "The globalisation of inflation: a view from the cross section," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 113-118 Bank for International Settlements.
- Heiner Mikosch, 2012. "Sticky Prices, Competition and the Phillips Curve," KOF Working papers 11-294, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012.
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- Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(25), pages 1-32.
- Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2011. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the great moderation era: new evidence from G10 countries," MPRA Paper 32994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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