IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/inecol/v24y2020i6p1352-1363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure

Author

Listed:
  • Qian Zhang
  • Christopher Kennedy
  • Tao Wang
  • Wendong Wei
  • Jiashuo Li
  • Lei Shi

Abstract

China's 2050 high renewable energy penetration (HREP) scenario is a roadmap for deep decarbonization. This promising strategy, deploying wind and solar energy, will also reshape other infrastructure sectors. With decarbonization, not only can capital be diverted away from fossil fuel infrastructure toward green power generation, but considerable savings in future transport infrastructure sectors could be achieved because fossil fuels no longer need to be transported. Here, we conduct a material flow analysis with a focus on the central role of transportation to examine the interlinkages of coal and steel flows in China's infrastructure sectors between 1985, 2015, and 2050. We define the coal and steel nexus to be a system perspective that captures the interdependence and the critical linkages between these two resources. Our results show that the coal and steel nexus in China strengthened in the past three decades but could face transitional changes to 2050. The peak time of both coal and steel demand for China is expected to come before 2030. Consequentially, the volume of rail freight for the carriage of three main types of bulk cargo (coal, iron ores, and steel products) declines from ∼2,000 megatons (Mt) in 2015 to ∼700 Mt in 2050 under the HREP scenario with the two‐fold planned growth of railway infrastructure. However, investment in cleaner energy and steelmaking technologies will help China mainly rely on secondary steel resources to maintain domestic demand in 2050, further reducing the demand for coal and iron ores.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian Zhang & Christopher Kennedy & Tao Wang & Wendong Wei & Jiashuo Li & Lei Shi, 2020. "Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(6), pages 1352-1363, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:24:y:2020:i:6:p:1352-1363
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13040
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jiec.13040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Ivar Korsbakken & Glen P. Peters & Robbie M. Andrew, 2016. "Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 687-690, July.
    2. David L. McCollum & Wenji Zhou & Christoph Bertram & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Valentina Bosetti & Sebastian Busch & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Marianne Fay & Oliver Fricko & Sh, 2018. "Author Correction: Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 699-699, August.
    3. Daniel L. Sanchez & James H. Nelson & Josiah Johnston & Ana Mileva & Daniel M. Kammen, 2015. "Biomass enables the transition to a carbon-negative power system across western North America," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 230-234, March.
    4. Raimund Bleischwitz & Catalina Spataru & Stacy D. VanDeveer & Michael Obersteiner & Ester Voet & Corey Johnson & Philip Andrews-Speed & Tim Boersma & Holger Hoff & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2018. "Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 737-743, December.
    5. Vivien Fisch-Romito & Céline Guivarch, 2019. "Transportation infrastructures in a low carbon world: An evaluation of investment needs and their determinants," Post-Print hal-02131954, HAL.
    6. Zhang, Yaru & Ma, Tieju & Guo, Fei, 2018. "A multi-regional energy transport and structure model for China’s electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 907-919.
    7. Rioux, Bertrand & Galkin, Philipp & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel, 2016. "Economic impacts of debottlenecking congestion in the Chinese coal supply chain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 387-399.
    8. Steven Chu & Arun Majumdar, 2012. "Opportunities and challenges for a sustainable energy future," Nature, Nature, vol. 488(7411), pages 294-303, August.
    9. Zhen, Lu, 1990. "Prospects for China's iron ore imports," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 95-103, June.
    10. Guo, Zheng & Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Jones, Ian & Li, Zheng, 2016. "A multi-regional modelling and optimization approach to China's power generation and transmission planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P2), pages 1348-1359.
    11. Joeri Rogelj & Gunnar Luderer & Robert C. Pietzcker & Elmar Kriegler & Michiel Schaeffer & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi, 2015. "Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 519-527, June.
    12. Tao Wang & Daniel B. Müller & Seiji Hashimoto, 2015. "The Ferrous Find: Counting Iron and Steel Stocks in China's Economy," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(5), pages 877-889, October.
    13. Davis, Steven J & Lewis, Nathan S. & Shaner, Matthew & Aggarwal, Sonia & Arent, Doug & Azevedo, Inês & Benson, Sally & Bradley, Thomas & Brouwer, Jack & Chiang, Yet-Ming & Clack, Christopher T.M. & Co, 2018. "Net-Zero Emissions Energy Systems," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7qv6q35r, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    14. Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Peng & Wang, Yang & Liu, Qian & Shen, Xinyi & Zhang, Kai & Dong, Liansai, 2016. "Coal power overcapacity and investment bubble in China during 2015–2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 136-144.
    15. Mou, Dunguo & Li, Zhi, 2012. "A spatial analysis of China's coal flow," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 358-368.
    16. David L. McCollum & Wenji Zhou & Christoph Bertram & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Valentina Bosetti & Sebastian Busch & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Marianne Fay & Oliver Fricko & Sh, 2018. "Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 589-599, July.
    17. Tao Wang & Jun Zhou & Ye Yue & Jie Yang & Seiji Hashimoto, 2016. "Weight under Steel Wheels: Material Stock and Flow Analysis of High-Speed Rail in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(6), pages 1349-1359, December.
    18. He, Gang & Kammen, Daniel M., 2014. "Where, when and how much wind is available? A provincial-scale wind resource assessment for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 116-122.
    19. Kennedy, Christopher & Corfee-Morlot, Jan, 2013. "Past performance and future needs for low carbon climate resilient infrastructure– An investment perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 773-783.
    20. Dan Tong & Qiang Zhang & Yixuan Zheng & Ken Caldeira & Christine Shearer & Chaopeng Hong & Yue Qin & Steven J. Davis, 2019. "Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target," Nature, Nature, vol. 572(7769), pages 373-377, August.
    21. Lin, Jiang & Kahrl, Fredrich & Liu, Xu, 2018. "A regional analysis of excess capacity in China’s power systems," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt44j2w0d0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    22. Anita Engels, 2018. "Understanding how China is championing climate change mitigation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-6, December.
    23. Mischke, Peggy & Karlsson, Kenneth B., 2014. "Modelling tools to evaluate China's future energy system – A review of the Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 132-143.
    24. Christopher J. Smith & Piers M. Forster & Myles Allen & Jan Fuglestvedt & Richard J. Millar & Joeri Rogelj & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2019. "Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    25. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying, 2013. "Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 407-415.
    26. Qin, Yue & Tong, Fan & Yang, Guang & Mauzerall, Denise L., 2018. "Challenges of using natural gas as a carbon mitigation option in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 457-462.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kennedy, Christopher, 2022. "Capital, energy and carbon in the United States economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    2. Penghao Ye & Senmao Xia & Yu Xiong & Chaoyang Liu & Fei Li & Jiamin Liang & Huarong Zhang, 2020. "Did an Ultra-Low Emissions Policy on Coal-Fueled Thermal Power Reduce the Harmful Emissions? Evidence from Three Typical Air Pollutants Abatement in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-19, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    2. Pan, Xunzhang & Ma, Xueqing & Zhang, Yanru & Shao, Tianming & Peng, Tianduo & Li, Xiang & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2023. "Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Panos, Evangelos & Glynn, James & Kypreos, Socrates & Lehtilä, Antti & Yue, Xiufeng & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Daniels, David & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Zhang, Zhuo & Zhao, Yongliang & Cai, Haiya & Ajaz, Tahseen, 2023. "Influence of renewable energy infrastructure, Chinese outward FDI, and technical efficiency on ecological sustainability in belt and road node economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 608-616.
    5. Ozdemir, Ali Can & Buluş, Kurtuluş & Zor, Kasım, 2022. "Medium- to long-term nickel price forecasting using LSTM and GRU networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Liu, Hailiang & Brown, Tom & Andresen, Gorm Bruun & Schlachtberger, David P. & Greiner, Martin, 2019. "The role of hydro power, storage and transmission in the decarbonization of the Chinese power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1308-1321.
    8. Lin, Jiang & Xu Liu, & Gang He,, 2020. "Regional electricity demand and economic transition in China," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Hongli Liu & Xiaoyu Yan & Jinhua Cheng & Jun Zhang & Yan Bu, 2021. "Driving Factors for the Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in Technical Efficiency of China’s New Energy Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Joëlle Noailly & Roger Smeets, 2022. "Financing Energy Innovation: Internal Finance and the Direction of Technical Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 145-169, September.
    11. Shao, Tianming & Pan, Xunzhang & Li, Xiang & Zhou, Sheng & Zhang, Shu & Chen, Wenying, 2022. "China's industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Shuntian Xu & Huaxuan Wang & Xin Tian & Tao Wang & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2022. "From efficiency to equity: Changing patterns of China's regional transportation systems from an in‐use steel stocks perspective," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(2), pages 548-561, April.
    13. Wu, Qingyang & Wang, Yanying, 2022. "How does carbon emission price stimulate enterprises' total factor productivity? Insights from China's emission trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Kemfert, Claudia & Präger, Fabian & Braunger, Isabell & Hoffart, Franziska M. & Brauers, Hanna, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 582-587.
    15. Lin, Yuanxiong & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Peng, Michael Yao-Ping & Irfan, Muhammad, 2023. "Assessment of renewable energy, financial growth and in accomplishing targets of China's cities carbon neutrality," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1082-1091.
    16. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    17. Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Nirvikar Singh, 2022. "India’s Strategy for Achieving Net Zero," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-11, August.
    19. Patange, Omkar S. & Garg, Amit & Jayaswal, Sachin, 2022. "An integrated bottom-up optimization to investigate the role of BECCS in transitioning towards a net-zero energy system: A case study from Gujarat, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    20. Yu, Bolin & Fang, Debin & Xiao, Kun & Pan, Yuling, 2023. "Drivers of renewable energy penetration and its role in power sector's deep decarbonization towards carbon peak," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:24:y:2020:i:6:p:1352-1363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1088-1980 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.