Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis
AbstractWith economic development, the Chinese steel industry has rapidly expanded over the past three decades. However, this expansion has resulted in many problems, such as increasing energy consumption and excessive environmental pollution. Therefore, it is important to analyze the future steel demand in China. This study presents changes in steel production and apparent steel consumption in the years 1998–2010. Steel is mainly consumed by construction, machinery, automobiles, shipbuilding, railways, petroleum, household appliances and containers, and these nine industries are analyzed separately using stock based models. The study suggests steel demand in China will rise from 600milliont in 2010 to a peak of 753milliont in 2025, and then gradually decrease to 510milliont in 2050. The construction industry is the largest steel consumer, although its share of total steel demand will decrease in the future. Steel demand in automobile manufacturing, by contrast, will increase rapidly before 2035, and its share will increase from 6.0% in 2010 to 19.0% in 2050. Sensitivity analysis on the four major impact factors such as saturation levels, lifetime distributions, GDP and urbanization rate shows that saturation levels of different products greatly affect long-term and short-term steel demands, while GDP and lifetime distributions, especially the lifetime distribution of buildings, mainly affect the short-term and long-term steel demands, respectively.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.
Volume (Year): 38 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467
Bottom–up analysis; Stock-based model; Steel demand;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fu, Feng & Pan, Lingying & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng, 2013. "A simplified method to estimate the energy-saving potentials of frequent construction and demolition process in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 316-322.
- Rebiasz, Bogdan, 2006. "Polish steel consumption, 1974-2008," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 37-49, March.
- Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2003. "Bayesian Vector Autoregression Forecasts of Chinese Steel Consumption," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 205-219.
- Daniel J.A. Johansson & Paul L. Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik O. Ahlgren & A.B. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta K. Pradhan & , 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Chen, Dongling & Clements, Kenneth W. & Roberts, E. John & Weber, E. Juerg, 1991. "Forecasting steel demand in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 196-210, September.
- Crompton, Paul, 1999. "Forecasting steel consumption in South-East Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 111-123, June.
- Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
- Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & McNeil, Michael & Zheng, Nina & Letschert, Virginie & Ke, Jing & Saheb, Yamina, 2011. "Analysis of potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of home appliances and commercial equipments in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4541-4550, August.
- Crompton, Paul, 2000. "Future trends in Japanese steel consumption," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 103-114, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.