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Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis

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  • Yin, Xiang
  • Chen, Wenying
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    Abstract

    With economic development, the Chinese steel industry has rapidly expanded over the past three decades. However, this expansion has resulted in many problems, such as increasing energy consumption and excessive environmental pollution. Therefore, it is important to analyze the future steel demand in China. This study presents changes in steel production and apparent steel consumption in the years 1998–2010. Steel is mainly consumed by construction, machinery, automobiles, shipbuilding, railways, petroleum, household appliances and containers, and these nine industries are analyzed separately using stock based models. The study suggests steel demand in China will rise from 600milliont in 2010 to a peak of 753milliont in 2025, and then gradually decrease to 510milliont in 2050. The construction industry is the largest steel consumer, although its share of total steel demand will decrease in the future. Steel demand in automobile manufacturing, by contrast, will increase rapidly before 2035, and its share will increase from 6.0% in 2010 to 19.0% in 2050. Sensitivity analysis on the four major impact factors such as saturation levels, lifetime distributions, GDP and urbanization rate shows that saturation levels of different products greatly affect long-term and short-term steel demands, while GDP and lifetime distributions, especially the lifetime distribution of buildings, mainly affect the short-term and long-term steel demands, respectively.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 407-415

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:4:p:407-415

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467

    Related research

    Keywords: Bottom–up analysis; Stock-based model; Steel demand;

    References

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    1. Fu, Feng & Pan, Lingying & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng, 2013. "A simplified method to estimate the energy-saving potentials of frequent construction and demolition process in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 316-322.
    2. Rebiasz, Bogdan, 2006. "Polish steel consumption, 1974-2008," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 37-49, March.
    3. Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2003. "Bayesian Vector Autoregression Forecasts of Chinese Steel Consumption," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 205-219.
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    5. Chen, Dongling & Clements, Kenneth W. & Roberts, E. John & Weber, E. Juerg, 1991. "Forecasting steel demand in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 196-210, September.
    6. Crompton, Paul, 1999. "Forecasting steel consumption in South-East Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 111-123, June.
    7. Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
    9. Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & McNeil, Michael & Zheng, Nina & Letschert, Virginie & Ke, Jing & Saheb, Yamina, 2011. "Analysis of potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of home appliances and commercial equipments in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4541-4550, August.
    10. Crompton, Paul, 2000. "Future trends in Japanese steel consumption," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 103-114, June.
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