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Transportation infrastructures in a low carbon world: An evaluation of investment needs and their determinants

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  • Vivien Fisch-Romito

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech)

Abstract

Transportation infrastructures will either lock in transportation patterns in CO2 high-emitting modes or foster low-carbon pathways. At the same time, increases in future mobility demand require the rapid development of new infrastructures. Here we quantify investment needs for transportation infrastructures over time to achieve both development and climate objectives. We compared investment needs between world regions and analyzed their main determinants. To do so, we built socioeconomic scenarios with the Imaclim-R integrated assessment model, combining alternatives for model parameters that determine mobility patterns. We then estimated the levels of investment that are consistent with the passenger and freight transportation trends in the different scenarios with and without climate policy. Finally, we used a global sensitivity analysis to identify the determinants of investments in low-carbon scenarios. We find that the expenditure needed for transportation infrastructure is lower in low-carbon pathways than in baseline scenarios. This result holds true at both the global and regional scales and is robust to the uncertainties considered. This overall decrease is brought about in particular by a reduction in transport activity. Rail utilization rates and road construction costs are determining factors for investment in all regions. Modal shift from road to rail can be a lever to reduce investment needs only if combined with action on rail infrastructure occupancy. To obtain a comprehensive assessment of the costs related to the transport sector in a low-carbon world, additional investments not considered in this study related to energy efficiency or alternative fuels use should be integrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivien Fisch-Romito & Céline Guivarch, 2019. "Transportation infrastructures in a low carbon world: An evaluation of investment needs and their determinants," Post-Print hal-02131954, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02131954
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2019.04.014
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02131954
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Daniels, Chux & AbdulRafiu, Abbas, 2022. "Transitioning to electrified, automated and shared mobility in an African context: A comparative review of Johannesburg, Kigali, Lagos and Nairobi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Antunes, Jorge & Tan, Yong & Wanke, Peter & Jabbour, Charbel Jose Chiappetta, 2023. "Impact of R&D and innovation in Chinese road transportation sustainability performance: A novel trigonometric envelopment analysis for ideal solutions (TEA-IS)," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    3. Zhu, Lichao, 2023. "Comparative evaluation of CO2 emissions from transportation in countries around the world," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Kapeller, Jakob & Leitch, Stuart & Wildauer, Rafael, 2023. "Can a European wealth tax close the green investment gap?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Yang, Xutao & Wu, Jianhong & Zong, Yueqi & Wang, Chao, 2023. "Are China's HSR tariff affordable and economic equitable? An international comparison perspective," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Jin Li & Feng Wang & Yu He, 2020. "Electric Vehicle Routing Problem with Battery Swapping Considering Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Qian Zhang & Christopher Kennedy & Tao Wang & Wendong Wei & Jiashuo Li & Lei Shi, 2020. "Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(6), pages 1352-1363, December.

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