IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v7y2017i2d10.1038_nclimate3199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Author

Listed:
  • G. Marangoni

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
    Centro Euro-mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
    Politecnico di Milano)

  • M. Tavoni

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
    Centro Euro-mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
    Politecnico di Milano)

  • V. Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
    Centro Euro-mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
    Bocconi University)

  • E. Borgonovo

    (Bocconi University)

  • P. Capros

    (National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus)

  • O. Fricko

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • D. E. H. J. Gernaat

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development)

  • C. Guivarch

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
    École des Ponts)

  • P. Havlik

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • D. Huppmann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • N. Johnson

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • P. Karkatsoulis

    (National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus)

  • I. Keppo

    (University College London, UCL Energy Institute)

  • V. Krey

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • E. Ó Broin

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))

  • J. Price

    (University College London, UCL Energy Institute)

  • D. P. van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development)

Abstract

Socioeconomic scenarios of climate change contain a number of assumptions, which lead to uncertainty in projections. Emission estimates in the scenarios are found to be most sensitive for assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Marangoni & M. Tavoni & V. Bosetti & E. Borgonovo & P. Capros & O. Fricko & D. E. H. J. Gernaat & C. Guivarch & P. Havlik & D. Huppmann & N. Johnson & P. Karkatsoulis & I. Keppo & V. Krey & E. Ó Br, 2017. "Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 113-117, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate3199
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3199
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nclimate3199?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vivien Fisch-Romito & Céline Guivarch, 2019. "Transportation infrastructures in a low carbon world: An evaluation of investment needs and their determinants," Post-Print hal-02131954, HAL.
    2. Giannousakis, Anastasis & Hilaire, Jérôme & Nemet, Gregory F. & Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Rodrigues, Renato & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar, 2021. "How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Fei Guo & Bas J. Ruijven & Behnam Zakeri & Shining Zhang & Xing Chen & Changyi Liu & Fang Yang & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Han Huang & Yuanbing Zhou, 2022. "Implications of intercontinental renewable electricity trade for energy systems and emissions," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 1144-1156, December.
    4. Marco Amendola & Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2023. "Energy efficiency policies in an agent-based macroeconomic model," LEM Papers Series 2023/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip & Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2020. "Economic disruptions in long-term energy scenarios – Implications for designing energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Lili Sun & Huijuan Cui & Quansheng Ge, 2021. "Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, September.
    7. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J. Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K. R, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Jiancheng Qin & Hui Tao & Minjin Zhan & Qamar Munir & Karthikeyan Brindha & Guijin Mu, 2019. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Matteo Fontana & Massimo Tavoni & Simone Vantini, 2020. "Global Sensitivity and Domain-Selective Testing for Functional-Valued Responses: An Application to Climate Economy Models," Papers 2006.13850, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    10. Fang, Kai & Zhang, Qifeng & Long, Yin & Yoshida, Yoshikuni & Sun, Lu & Zhang, Haoran & Dou, Yi & Li, Shuai, 2019. "How can China achieve its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by 2030? A multi-criteria allocation of China’s carbon emission allowance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 380-389.
    11. Hsing-Hsuan Chen & Andries F. Hof & Vassilis Daioglou & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Maarten van den Berg & Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2021. "Using Decomposition Analysis to Determine the Main Contributing Factors to Carbon Neutrality across Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Brockway, Paul E. & Sorrell, Steve & Semieniuk, Gregor & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Court, Victor, 2021. "Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K Ros, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Post-Print hal-03558507, HAL.
    15. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Blok, K. & Calvin, K. & Fujimori, S., 2020. "Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    16. Marian Leimbach & Anastasis Giannousakis, 2019. "Burden sharing of climate change mitigation: global and regional challenges under shared socio-economic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 273-291, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate3199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.