IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econth/y2004i7p137-161.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

External Migration from Bulgaria at the Beginning of the XXI Century: Estimates of Potential Emigrants’ Attitudes and Profile

Author

Listed:
  • Yordan Kalchev,
  • Valentin Goev
  • Vesselin Mintchev
  • Venelin Boshnakov

Abstract

The emigration potential is estimated, as well as the profile of settlers and the temporary long-term and short-term Bulgarian emigrants. The difference between the actual emigration and the generally declared intention to travel abroad is discussed. The data from two surveys carried out using the same questionnaire in 2001 and 2003 is used. When identifying the profile of emigrants there have been established two types of variables: demographics; employment, education and previous stay abroad. There are used standard cross-tabulations and binary logit-models. Three individual logit-models for each type of emigrant are estimated. It is emphasized that: the immediate emigration potential from Bulgaria (within the current year) does not differ dramatically from that of the countries of Central Europe; age and previous stay abroad are among the most important determinants of emigration attitudes of Bulgarian citizens; employment, education and incomes do not have the expected influence. It is argumented that migratory policies, based on restrictions and bilateral agreements (in their European version), could hardly be effective under the conditions of the newly created migration networks and the business which has found a niche in the provision of emigration services.

Suggested Citation

  • Yordan Kalchev, & Valentin Goev & Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2004. "External Migration from Bulgaria at the Beginning of the XXI Century: Estimates of Potential Emigrants’ Attitudes and Profile," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 137-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2004:i:7:p:137-161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ceeol.com/aspx/issuedetails.aspx?issueid=4c76a677-792d-45b3-b763-c611cd8aa253&articleid=52623af3-4b5c-4d4d-b24e-a014fe5816b4#a52623af3-4b5c-4d4d-b24e-a014fe5816b4
    Download Restriction: Fee access
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Matloob Piracha & Roger Vickerman, 2002. "Immigration, Labour Mobility and EU Enlargement," Studies in Economics 0209, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Philip Martin, 2003. "Managing International Labor Migration in the 21st Century," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 1(1), pages 9-18.
    4. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Go West? Assessing the willingness to move from Central and Eastern European Countries," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0503, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    6. Mihails Hazans, 2003. "Potential emigration of Latvian labour force after joining the EU and its impact on Latvian labour market," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 2003-2, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    7. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 36(1), pages 1-2, January.
    8. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU Labour Markets," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 49-68, January.
    9. Peter Sanfey & Harry Papapanagos, 2001. "Intention to emigrate in transition countries: the case of Albania," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 491-504.
    10. Dhori Kule & Ahmet Mançellari & Harry Papapanagos & Stefan Qirici & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "The Causes and Consequences of Albanian Emigration during Transition: Evidence from Micro Data," Studies in Economics 0004, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    11. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU-Labour-Markets: Perceptions, Challenges and Opportunities," IZA Discussion Papers 256, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vesselin Mintchev, 2016. "Potential and Return Migrants in Bulgaria – Demographic and Socio-Economic Aspects," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 91-115.
    2. Vesselin Mintchev & Georgi Shopov & Iordan Kaltchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2016. "Migration of Bulgarian Population – Characteristics and Relations to the Regional Socio-Economic Disparities," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 45-78.
    3. Веселин Минчев & Венелин Бошнаков, 2007. "Ефекти, Профил И Поведение На Завръщащите Се Емигранти В България," ERI-BAS Chapters, in: Митко Димитров (ed.), Студии за ускорено развитие на българската икономика, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 165-189, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute.
    4. Venelin Boshnakov & Vesselin Mintchev, 2006. "Return Migration’s Profile and Experience: Empirical Evidence from Bulgaria," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 65, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2006. "Economics of Bulgarian Emigration - Empirical Assessment," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 23-47.
    6. J. Kalchev & Vesselin Mintchev & S. Blajeva & Rossitsa Rangelova & Venelin Boshnakov & Katya Vladimirova, 2006. "Gender Dimension Of The Bulgaria'S New Migration: Policy Implications," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 43-66.
    7. Iskra Christova-Balkanska, 2011. "Emigration and Foreign Direct Investments: Links and Impact on the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 80-103.
    8. Gancho Ganchev & Mariya Paskaleva, 2019. "The Relationship between Workforce Migration and the Basic Macroeconomic Variables of the Countries from Central Eastern Europe with a Focus on Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 45-69.
    9. Iskra Christova-Balkanska, 2010. "Diversity and the Bulgarian Labor Emigration Case," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 65-84.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yordan Kalchev & Valentin Goev & Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2004. "Bulgarian Emigration in the Beginning of ÕÕI Century: an Assessment of Attitudes and the Profile of Potential Emigrants," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 3-30.
    2. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Go West? Assessing the willingness to move from Central and Eastern European Countries," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0503, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement," IZA Discussion Papers 1600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
    6. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
    7. de Arce, Rafael & Mahia, Ramon, 2008. "Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey," MPRA Paper 14547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2004. "Integration and Labour Markets in European Border Regions," HWWA Discussion Papers 284, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    10. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
    11. Khrystyna FOGEL, 2015. "The multistage nature of labour migration from Eastern and Central Europe (experience of Ukraine, Poland, United Kingdom and Germany during the 2002-2011 period)," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 55-81, December.
    12. Klaus Nowotny, 2011. "AFLA – Arbeitskräftemobilität und Fachkräftebedarf nach der Liberalisierung des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes. Migrations- und Pendelpotentiale nach Ende der Übergangsfristen für die Arbeitskräftefr," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41563, April.
    13. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
    14. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
    15. Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2006. "Economics of Bulgarian Emigration - Empirical Assessment," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 23-47.
    16. Joanne Evans & Eleftherios Goulas & Paul Levine, 2007. "Military Expenditure And Migration In Europe," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 305-316.
    17. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
    18. Laila Touhami Morghem & Khawlah Ali Abdalla Spetan, 2020. "Determinants of International Migration: An Applied Study on Selected Arab Countries (1995-2017)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 6-19.
    19. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Migration and adjustment to shocks in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 23-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    20. Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Entry and Exit Strategies in Migration Dynamics," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 362-389, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2004:i:7:p:137-161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.