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External Migration from Bulgaria at the Beginning of the XXI Century: Estimates of Potential Emigrants’ Attitudes and Profile


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  • Yordan Kalchev,
  • Valentin Goev
  • Vesselin Mintchev
  • Venelin Boshnakov


The emigration potential is estimated, as well as the profile of settlers and the temporary long-term and short-term Bulgarian emigrants. The difference between the actual emigration and the generally declared intention to travel abroad is discussed. The data from two surveys carried out using the same questionnaire in 2001 and 2003 is used. When identifying the profile of emigrants there have been established two types of variables: demographics; employment, education and previous stay abroad. There are used standard cross-tabulations and binary logit-models. Three individual logit-models for each type of emigrant are estimated. It is emphasized that: the immediate emigration potential from Bulgaria (within the current year) does not differ dramatically from that of the countries of Central Europe; age and previous stay abroad are among the most important determinants of emigration attitudes of Bulgarian citizens; employment, education and incomes do not have the expected influence. It is argumented that migratory policies, based on restrictions and bilateral agreements (in their European version), could hardly be effective under the conditions of the newly created migration networks and the business which has found a niche in the provision of emigration services.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute in its journal Economic Thought.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 137-161

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Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2004:i:7:p:137-161

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  1. Peter Sanfey & Harry Papapanagos, 2001. "Intention to emigrate in transition countries: the case of Albania," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 491-504.
  2. Mihails Hazans, 2003. "Potential emigration of Latvian labour force after joining the EU and its impact on Latvian labour market," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 2003-2, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS) and Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
  3. Matloob Piracha & Roger Vickerman, 2002. "Immigration, Labour Mobility and EU Enlargement," Studies in Economics 0209, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  4. Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Go West? Assessing the willingness to move from Central and Eastern European Countries," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0503, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  6. Dhori Kule & Ahmet Mançellari & Harry Papapanagos & Stefan Qirici & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "The Causes and Consequences of Albanian Emigration during Transition: Evidence from Micro Data," Studies in Economics 0004, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  7. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 167-170, July.
  8. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU-Labour-Markets: Perceptions, Challenges and Opportunities," IZA Discussion Papers 256, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Cited by:
  1. Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2006. "The Economics of Bulgarian Emigration – Empirical Assessment," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 134-161.
  2. repec:wii:bpaper:bowp:065 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Iskra Christova-Balkanska, 2010. "Diversity and the Bulgarian Labor Emigration Case," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 65-84.
  4. J. Kalchev & Vesselin Mintchev & S. Blajeva & Rossitsa Rangelova & Venelin Boshnakov & Katya Vladimirova, 2006. "Gender Dimension Of The Bulgaria'S New Migration: Policy Implications," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 43-66.
  5. Venelin Boshnakov & Vesselin Mintchev, 2006. "Return Migration’s Profile and Experience: Empirical Evidence from Bulgaria," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 65, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  6. Vesselin Mintchev & Venelin Boshnakov, 2006. "Economics of Bulgarian Emigration - Empirical Assessment," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 23-47.
  7. Веселин Минчев & Венелин Бошнаков, 2007. "Ефекти, Профил И Поведение На Завръщащите Се Емигранти В България," ERI-BAS Chapters, in: Митко Димитров (ed.), Студии за ускорено развитие на българската икономика, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 165-189 Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute.
  8. Iskra Christova-Balkanska, 2011. "Emigration and Foreign Direct Investments: Links and Impact on the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 80-103.


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