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Bulgarian Emigration in the Beginning of ÕÕI Century: an Assessment of Attitudes and the Profile of Potential Emigrants

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  • Yordan Kalchev
  • Valentin Goev
  • Vesselin Mintchev
  • Venelin Boshnakov

Abstract

The emigration potential is estimated, as well as the profile of settlers and the temporary long-term and short-term Bulgarian emigrants. The difference between the actual emigration and the generally declared intention to travel abroad is discussed. The data from two surveys carried out using the same questionnaire in 2001 and 2003 is used. When identifying the profile of emigrants there have been established two types of variables: demographics; employment, education and previous stay abroad. There are used standard cross-tabulations and binary logit-models. Three individual logit-models for each type of emigrant are estimated. It is emphasized that: the immediate emigration potential from Bulgaria (within the current year) does not differ dramatically from that of the countries of Central Europe; age and previous stay abroad are among the most important determinants of emigration attitudes of Bulgarian citizens; employment, education and incomes do not have the expected influence. It is argumented that migratory policies, based on restrictions and bilateral agreements (in their European version), could hardly be effective under the conditions of the newly created migration networks and the business which has found a niche in the provision of emigration services.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute in its journal Economic Thought.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 3-30

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Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2004:i:5:p:3-30

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  1. Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Peter Sanfey & Harry Papapanagos, 2001. "Intention to emigrate in transition countries: the case of Albania," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 491-504.
  3. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-2, January.
  4. Mihails Hazans, 2003. "Potential emigration of Latvian labour force after joining the EU and its impact on Latvian labour market," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 2003-2, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS) and Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
  5. Matloob Piracha & Roger Vickerman, 2002. "Immigration, Labour Mobility and EU Enlargement," Studies in Economics 0209, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  6. Dhori Kule & Ahmet Mançellari & Harry Papapanagos & Stefan Qirici & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "The Causes and Consequences of Albanian Emigration during Transition: Evidence from Micro Data," Studies in Economics 0004, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  7. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU-Labour-Markets: Perceptions, Challenges and Opportunities," IZA Discussion Papers 256, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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