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Analisis de transmision de precios entre los mercados de maiz mexicanos y el mercado estadounidense: metodos lineales y no lineales

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  • Araujo-Encisco, Sergio

Abstract

El estudio del fenomeno economico de transmision de precios, asi como de la integracion de mercados ha recibido gran atencion por parte de la comunidad academica, asi como de diversos organizmos gubernamentales y no gubernamentales. Es de particular interes la integracion de los mercados a nivel internacional, debido al impacto, negativo o positivo, que pueda tener los mercados internacionales en los mercados regionales, en especial en los paises en desarrollo. La presente investigacion demuestra que existe cierto grado de integracion entre los mercados de maiz en Mexico y los Estados Unidos en base al analisis de transmision de precios, siendo este grado de cointegracion diferente para las distintas regiones en Mexico. Los modelos evaluados con diferentes metodologias, lineales y no linealesm sugieren que los precios en las todas las regiones en Mexico se ajustand a los cambios de precio en los Estados Unidos a diferentes velocidades, este hecho evidencia que los precios de maiz en Mexico se determinan en cierta medida en funcion de los precios los Estados Unidos. Asimismo en analisis de asimetria de precios sugiere la existencia de poder de mercado entre los importadores de maiz en Mexico como una explicacion a las diferentes velocidades de ajuste que se observan en las distintas regiones en Mexico. The study of price transmission and market integration have received great attention, not only from the scientific community, but also from international organizations and national governments. Of particular interest is market integration at the international level given the impact (positive or negative) on regional markets, specifically in developing countries. Using price transmission analysis, the present research shows that maize markets in Mexico and the United States (US) are cointegrated. Furthermore, the research shows that the degree of cointegration is different for each regional market in Mexico. The different methodologies used here, linear and non-linear, suggest that Mexican prices adjust to changes in US prices at different speeds depending on the region. This outcome serves as evidence that Mexican prices are functions of US prices, with the asymmetric price transmission analysis suggesting market power among maize importers in Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo-Encisco, Sergio, 2011. "Analisis de transmision de precios entre los mercados de maiz mexicanos y el mercado estadounidense: metodos lineales y no lineales," Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (formerly Ministry of Agriculture), issue 229, pages 1-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:spreea:186683
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.186683
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